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Jun 16 2024

Adam Boulton: Keir Starmer may echo Tony Blair by getting Labour into Number 10 but heavy burden awaits him | Politics News

There are still two and a half weeks to go.

The most overused simile of this campaign so far is about the challenge facing Sir Keir Starmer to lead Labour safely to victory in this general election. Politicians and pundits simply mention the “Ming vase” for short.

This is a reference to the 1997 election campaign and the last time a Labour leader held in his grasp the possibility of ending a long period of Conservative rule.

The analogy was coined by the ex-Labour Grandee Roy Jenkins who amused a Liberal Democrat dinner by likening Tony Blair to a curator nervously carrying a priceless gossamer-thin Ming vase across a newly polished and treacherously slippery museum floor.

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Blair pulled off the trick – in spite of almost believing it could not be done.

“We usually lose” is the perennial warning from Pat McFadden who was a Blair advisor then and is now Starmer’s campaign chief.

When he got to examine the election result, Lord Jenkins found that the porcelain treasure was not to his liking. He had hoped for a narrow win necessitating a progressive realignment bringing together Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

But Labour won such a big majority there was no need for coalition partners.

Starmer is just as delicately poised today. Opinion polls and academic analysts suggest he may be on course for a victory at least as big as Blair.

The Labour leader and his closest confidants may be the last people in the political world to agree.

This is not just rejecting complacency. As he reminded his supporters at Labour’s manifesto launch, only the general election counts.

There is always a chance that a slip or a blow drops the pot to smash on the floor.

If Starmer makes it to victory the size of the majority, if there is one, will determine what sort of government he is able to put in place.

Sweet victory allowed Blair to ignore or crush dissent in Labour and trade union ranks. By contrast, Cameron, May and Sunak all ended up hostage to factions on the warring Conservative benches.

One of the striking features of this extraordinary election campaign is the contrast between the two sides.

Labour has largely united behind Starmer and accepted the iron discipline he deems necessary to reassure the voters.

“This is a serious plan,” he told his supporters at his manifesto launch. “It’s not about rabbits out of the hat, it’s not about pantomime, we’ve had that. I’m running as a candidate to be prime minister, not a candidate to run the circus.”

The event in Manchester reminded me of New Labour 1997, albeit in gloomy rather than optimistic times. The men and women in the audience were dressed in business suits, with flashes of red. And there was barely a ripple when a young female heckler was bundled out with the rebuke from the leader “we gave up being a party of protest five years ago”.

That is when he replaced Jeremy Corbyn as party leader.

Tory candidates are pleasing themselves

On the Conservative side, it is every man and woman for themselves.

Rishi Sunak often cuts a forlorn figure on the campaign trail, seldom accompanied by other senior figures or among large crowds. Candidates are pleasing themselves, putting out leaflets which may not feature pictures of Sunak or the Tory logo and, in the case of Dame Andrea Jenkins at least, giving pride of place to Nigel Farage, leader to the rival Reform UK party.

There is still something about the mood of voters “on the doorstep” that is troubling some Labour activists. Most people they are canvassing agree that it is time for a change of government but few of them express much enthusiasm for Labour or its leader.

This is very different from 1997 when the youthful Blair enjoyed near pin-up status.

For all their nagging doubts, Labour strategists often mutter “boring is good” after another dull performance by Sir Keir.

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They know that indifference to the leader may not stop Labour enjoying a large victory provided that the animus against the Conservatives is fierce enough.

Whether or not a former Conservative voter opts for Labour, the Lib Dems or Reform, Labour is usually well-placed to take the seat because of the strength of its bedrock vote.

Starmer’s safety-first approach means that Labour is the mainstream party offering the fewest election “bribes” to voters.

Its extra spending as outlined in its manifesto is the lowest of the three main parties and it is the only party to factor in the certainty that taxes will be going up, as well their own package of targeted taxes, including VAT on private education and the abolition of non-doms.

Labour’s pledges to match the Conservatives by not increasing the rates of income tax, VAT and national insurance are another echo of New Labour in 1997.

Labour’s overall tax and spend package is more modest in size than either of their main rivals. In the view of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Labour’s plans are “trivial”.

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The IFS also doubts Starmer’s hope that rapid economic growth will obviate the need for cuts in unprotected departmental spending. Nevertheless the Conservatives have struggled to make stick their claim that Labour will cut the average family an extra £2,000 in tax over the next parliament.

An unusual aspect of this campaign is that Labour remains most trusted to run the economy in opinion polls – a policy area which is usually a banker for the Tories.

A prime minister in waiting

Labour’s one word slogan is “Change”. The change Starmer is offering however is a return to stability after what he calls “chaos” under the Conservatives.

Starmer appeared at the launch and on the front cover of the manifesto in shirt sleeves but still wearing a tie, just like Blair.

Like Blair in 1997, his party is presenting him as a prime minister in waiting.

Their manifesto booklet is the only one featuring many photographs of the leader on performative duty. These include a picture with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the D-Day ceremony.

Far from their seeking a photo-op, Labour sources say Zelenskyy was eager for the meeting and regarded it as one of the most important in his Normandy diary.

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This side of polling day the greatest threat to Labour is that the opinion polls have got it badly wrong.

Starmer is not going to slip up now.

Neither Starmer nor Blair are dancers but as they cross the shiny floor the same theme tune is playing in the background. Whether in hope or despair many voters seem to have decided “things can only get better” if they make a change from the Conservatives.

Starmer may manage to carry the vase over the finishing line. Once there, he will find he is holding a heavy burden.

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Jul 7 2023

Tony Blair: Impact of AI on par with Industrial Revolution | Politics News

When it comes to the topic of artificial intelligence, Sir Tony Blair is clear on the technology’s potential to change the way we live.

“I think it is on a par with the 19th-century Industrial Revolution,” he says.

“I think it [technology] already was, but generative AI has given it a further push forward.”

The former prime minister’s eponymous institute is writing papers on AI, while he has given talks and penned newspaper opinion pieces on the technology.

Sir Tony wants us to understand the risk as well as the reward.

“It is a technology that is, simultaneously, very good but potentially very bad,” he tells me.

“The advantages are massive. It can transform the way we live and work, it can do enormous things in healthcare and education; in the way government configures itself.

“It is going to change business work – it should increase productivity dramatically.

“On the other hand, you can get disinformation deepfakes, people using it for example to create bio-terror weapons.

“How does government need to approach it? It needs to understand it, master it and harness it. Access the opportunities, mitigate the risks.”

The question that prompts that answer was written by the AI chatbot, ChatGPT.

It asks Sir Tony for his views on the potential benefits and risks of AI, and how governments and societies should deal with such a rapidly advancing technology.

“Well, that’s a pretty obvious question,” he replies.

Nevertheless, he answers.

I ask him to describe the moment we find ourselves in.

“This is akin to the industrial revolution,” he says. “Just as that moment changed humanity, changed the state, this moment and generative AI will do that too.”

And are we ready for it? Here, he is more careful in his response.

When asked if politicians in the UK have been naïve, he says no, but says there has been ignorance of the power and use of the technology.

“Part of the problem is you’ve got the changemakers in one room and the policymakers in the other,” he says.

The US, China, and the private sector have stolen a march – and Sir Tony says countries such as Singapore are catching up with the UK too.

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“China is a leader in the AI field. The 21st century is going to be shaped by the competition between the two [China and US].”

But Sir Tony says the competing superpowers will have to find a way to work together – particularly on climate change and global health.

“Is it possible to do that in technology? I don’t know.”

And what about the UK, can it still be a leader?

“We are strong at life science, we are strong in climate, we are strong in AI itself,” he tells me.

“We need to keep our universities strong, we need to invest heavily in the infrastructure, build our computing capacity.

“There is a lot to do, and it has to be driven from the top.”

One positive, Sir Tony says, is the UK’s hosting of a major AI conference this autumn.

“One of the reasons I think it is a good idea is to explore all the different possibilities in regulation and try to get the leading countries together,” he says.

“At the very least, Europe and America should be trying to work together on this.”

As a final question, I asked if AI could have done his job as prime minister.

“No. It couldn’t have,” he says with a smile.

But there are parts of his job where AI would have been an aide, he says.

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“It could make decision-making much more efficient. It could replace some of the processes in government.

“Already around the world, for example, you have people using AI to do planning, you have one country in Europe now using it to do small claims, rather than going through an expensive court process.

“In the end, it is maybe best to look at it as an aide to the people making a decision.

“But in the end you have to keep the decision-making capability for the human, but it will be much better informed by the technology.”

As he leaves, Sir Tony tells me about how his kids have asked AI to make a rap song using the text of one of his speeches.

Was it any good? He doesn’t say…

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Jun 5 2023

Lord Morris of Aberavon, who was Labour minister under Harold Wilson and Tony Blair, dies aged 91 | Politics News

Lord Morris of Aberavon, the last surviving member of Harold Wilson’s cabinet and the last surviving Labour MP elected in the 1950s, has died aged 91.

As John Morris, he was Welsh secretary under Harold Wilson and James Callaghan, and attorney general under Tony Blair.

He was one of only a handful of senior Labour politicians to serve under Wilson, Callaghan and Blair. He also served under Neil Kinnock in opposition.

It has been claimed that Lord Morris was the “father of devolution” in Wales, after drawing up legislation in 1978 that led to a no vote in a 1979 referendum.

And although that title is disputed, he claimed his “fingers were on the strings of that harp from beginning to end” and the current Aberavon MP told Sky News that Lord Morris was indeed a “champion of devolution”.

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Stephen Kinnock, son of the former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, said: “John Morris was a Welsh Labour politician and minister of great distinction in both the Commons and the Lords.

“He served the people of my Aberavon constituency with dedication and huge commitment for 40 years and my deepest sympathies go to Margaret and his family.

“He was a great legal brain and played an absolutely crucial role as attorney general in the British government and he was a leader in Welsh politics, as a champion of devolution and a source of wisdom, in particular on the legal and constitutional aspects of the devolution process.”

A leading barrister and later a QC, Lord Morris became an MP in 1959 and, as a Labour MP for 41 years, was the longest-serving Welsh MP in parliament.

Together with his time in the House of Lords, after a peerage when he left the Commons in 2001, Lord Morris served in parliament for 60 years.

In Wilson’s 1964-70 government, he was a junior minister at both the ministry of power and ministry of transport, before becoming minister of state for defence during the war in Biafra.

He was Welsh secretary throughout the whole of the 1974-79 Labour government and attorney general from 1997 to 1999 during the conflict in Kosovo.

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As secretary of state for Wales, he drafted the devolution bill passed by Callaghan’s government in 1978 which paved the way for the 1979 referendum.

But that vote was lost, as only just over 20% of the electorate voted in favour of the creation of an assembly in Wales.

“I had no idea the defeat would be such a big one,” Lord Morris said in a 2015 TV documentary. “The truth had to be faced, we had failed abysmally.”

He claimed, however, that the devolution proposals in that 1979 referendum were largely the same as were put to the public in 1997 by the Blair government.

“There was very little difference between the old Act of 1978 and the new one,” he said. “It’s the same piece of legislation.

“New work wasn’t needed and that’s how the measure was prepared so quickly. My fingers were on the strings of that harp from beginning to end.”

The 1997 referendum was won, narrowly with just over 50% of the vote in favour, and in 2011 a referendum to give the assembly law-making powers secured a 63.5% Yes vote.

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Dec 30 2022

Tony Blair wanted Vladimir Putin at ‘top table’ while he was PM despite officials’ fears | Politics News

Tony Blair wanted Vladimir Putin to have a seat at the international “top table” during his time as prime minister, according to newly released official files.

The Labour PM from 1997 to 2007 believed the Russian president was at heart a “Russian patriot” and it was important to encourage him to adopt Western values, the papers released to the National Archives show.

However, officials voiced their fears he represented a return to Cold War attitudes and questioned whether he could be trusted.

In 2001, about a year after KGB lieutenant officer Mr Putin became president, an internal No 10 briefing note entitled “Putin’s progress” raised the concerns, including a resurgence in Russian espionage activities.

“Despite the warmth of Putin’s rhetoric about the close links between Russia and the UK, the Russian intelligence effort against British targets remains at a high level,” it said.

“The Russian intelligence presence in the UK is at Cold War levels, and they continue to try to post active and hostile officers to work against British interests worldwide.”

The document gives a list of assurances from Mr Putin to Mr Blair during their meetings at international summits, which turned out to be false.

They included backing for the West’s tough line on dealing with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and pledges that Moscow would stop supplying Iran’s nuclear programme.

The papers said Mr Putin had thanked Mr Blair for offering assistance after the sinking of the Russian submarine Kursk, with all 118 crew lost, but said Russian officials obstructed the offer while spreading false rumours it sunk due to colliding with a British submarine.

In a memorandum that is very relevant now, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Putin also told Mr Blair he did not want to be considered to be “anti-NATO” but his defence minister then warned NATO any further enlargement would be “a major political error” requiring Moscow to take “appropriate steps”.

The note is part of a series of briefing notes for Mr Blair’s foreign policy adviser John Sawers ahead of meeting senior officials in the new George Bush administration before the prime minister’s first meeting with the new US president.

Mr Blair compared Mr Putin to French wartime president Charles de Gaulle during talks with then-vice-president Dick Cheney at Camp David.

“The prime minister described him as a Russian patriot, acutely aware that Russia had lost its respect in the world. To describe him as a Russian de Gaulle would be misleading, but he had a similar mindset,” the note of the meeting said.

“He (Mr Blair) understood that Putin had a low approval rating in the US. But he thought it was better to allow Putin a position on the top table and encourage Putin to reach for Western attitudes as well as the Western economic model.”

And despite tensions with the Russian president, the files show how diplomacy ruled, with a No 10 official informing Mr Blair on his trip to Moscow in 2001 that he had to give the president a set of newly released silver No 10 cufflinks for his birthday.

Mandela intervention ‘not helpful’

The files also reveal tensions between Mr Blair and Nelson Mandela, as well as with his cabinet, notably his chancellor Gordon Brown.

Files showed officials in No 10 feared former South African president Mr Mandela’s efforts to act as an intermediary between the Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi over the Lockerbie bombing were “unlikely to be helpful”.

Mr Mandela, as president, helped broker the agreement that eventually led to two Libyan intelligence agents standing trial before a Scottish court for the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over the Scottish village of Lockerbie, killing 270.

But after his presidency ended and one of the accused was found guilty in 2001, Mr Mandela tried to intercede as Gaddafi pushed for international sanctions on Libya to be lifted.

Anna Wechsberg in the No 10 private office noted: “Mandela evidently sees himself acting as mediator between the prime minister and Gaddafi. This is unlikely to be helpful.”

Away days ‘pretty ghastly’

On friction with Mr Blair’s cabinet, notes reveal not one senior minister enjoyed the annual “away days” held at the PM’s country home of Chequers.

David Milliband, then a No 10 special adviser, complained that no company would run them in such a haphazard fashion.

“The tradition of a TB/GB (Tony Blair/Gordon Brown) introduction and then one disjointed comment from each cabinet member is pretty ghastly – and not very useful,” he said in a memo.

The files show Mr Blair’s chief of staff suggested Mr Brown led the 1998 gathering on the economy, writing: “You said you did not like this, but I don’t see how you can avoid it.”

Mr Blair replied: “No, we should start with a general political discussion which I should lead, then in (the) afternoon economy.”

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