Sir Keir Starmer will travel to Brussels on Wednesday to hold talks with EU leaders about “putting the Brexit years behind us” and bolstering ties with the UK.
The prime minister has vowed to “reset” relations with Europe following tensions between the previous Tory government and the EU – though he has ruled out a return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement.
Downing Street said Sir Keir will be focused on delivering a “broad-based security pact” with the bloc, as well as tackling barriers to trade.
In discussions with the likes of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he will say that at a time of growing instability in the world, it is important that “like-minded countries cooperate more closely on areas of shared interest”.
Ahead of the meeting, the prime minister said: “The UK is undeniably stronger when it works in lockstep with its closest international partners. This has never been more important – with war, conflict and insecurity all knocking on Europe’s door.
“We will only be able to tackle these challenges by putting our collective weight behind them, which is why I am so determined to put the Brexit years behind us and establish a more pragmatic and mature relationship with the European Union.
“Better cooperation with the EU will deliver the benefits the British people deserve – securing our borders, keeping us safe and boosting economic growth.”
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3:09
Starmer ‘won’t reverse’ Brexit
No concrete announcements are expected from the talks, which will also include meetings with European Council President Charles Michel and the European Parliament’s President Roberta Metsola.
The European Commission said the discussions with Ms von der Leyen would be “the beginning of a conversation” about closer ties.
Sir Keir is under pressure to agree to Brussels’ calls for a deal on youth mobility to allow young EU citizens greater flexibility to come to the UK to study and work and vice versa.
This is something the prime minister has so far resisted, saying red lines for the reset rule out a return of freedom of movement, alongside rejoining the customs union and single market.
Read more: UK ‘£311bn worse off by 2035’ due to leaving EU Brexit border checks to ‘add billions’ to consumer bills
Before the talks, pro-EU campaigners pushed for a rethink, accusing the government of “letting young people down”.
Sir Nick Harvey, chief executive of European Movement UK, said: “Dismissing the idea of reciprocal youth mobility simply means letting down British young people, who face all sorts of economic difficulties and have seen their horizons curtailed by Brexit.
“Young people want and deserve the chance to study or work in Europe. The government owes it to them to make sure they get that chance.”
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Cal Roscow, from the Best for Britain campaign, said: “Brexit robbed young Brits of irreplaceable opportunities to experience new cultures, meet new people and learn new languages while working, travelling and studying in Europe.
“The new government has the chance to give these formative experiences back to young Brits, with this universally popular scheme that the European Commission is already open to agreeing.”
Sir Keir Starmer is heading to Germany to hold talks on a new bilateral treaty with the country as he hopes to “move beyond Brexit to rebuild relationships” with the EU.
The prime minister will meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday to discuss the deal, which will aim to “boost business and trade, deepen defence and security cooperation, and increase joint action on illegal migration”.
Downing Street expects negotiations for the treaty – which it described as “a key pillar of the UK’s wider reset with Europe” – to continue for six months, with both sides hoping it can be signed in early 2025.
Speaking ahead of the trip, Sir Keir the UK “must turn a corner on Brexit and fix the broken relationships left behind by the previous government”.
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Specific areas expected to be addressed in the new treaty with Germany include market access between the countries, science and technology collaboration, clean energy and energy security, trade across the North Sea and so-called supply chain “resilience”.
The two leaders will also discuss further intelligence sharing in an effort to tackle the people smuggling gangs responsible for much of the illegal migration in Europe.
As well as meeting Mr Scholz and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Sir Keir will also hold talks with the chief executives of both technology firm Siemens and defence company Rheinmetall.
Image: It will be the fifth time Sir Keir Starmer has met Olaf Scholz since he became prime minister. Pic: PA
He will then travel to Paris to attend the Paralympics opening ceremony on Wednesday night, before holding a breakfast meeting with French business leaders and later meeting France’s President Emmanuel Macron.
Sir Keir said: “We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset our relationship with Europe and strive for genuine, ambitious partnerships that deliver for the British people.
“Strengthening our relationship with these countries is crucial, not only in tackling the global problem of illegal migration, but also in boosting economic growth across the continent and crucially in the UK – one of the key missions of my government.”
Image: Emmanuel Macron and Sir Keir Starmer have also met three times in the past eight weeks. Pic: PA
The trip comes after the prime minister warned of “painful” decisions in his government’s first budget come October, due to what Labour has called a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances left by the previous Conservative government.
Giving a speech in the gardens of Number 10 on Tuesday, he hinted at tax rises in the autumn, saying “those with the broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden” and “those who made the mess should have to do their bit to clean it up”.
But Sir Keir also said he would have to “turn to the country and make big asks of you as well, to accept short-term pain for long-term good”.
The Tory shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott said the government was “rolling the pitch to break even more promises” after campaigning on not increasing taxes during the last election, adding: “This a betrayal of people’s trust and we will hold them to account for their actions.”
The Conservatives have claimed a Labour government could “put Brexit in peril” in statements and op-eds published on the eighth anniversary of the EU referendum.
Rishi Sunak has made a series of claims about rival Sir Keir Starmer and his intentions if Labour get into government – claiming he “would recommit us to free movement of EU citizens, taking thousands more illegal migrants and binding our businesses again in Brussels red tape”.
“Keir Starmer has never believed we can succeed as a sovereign country and has tried to overturn the result time and time again,” he said. “Now he has committed to years more wrangling the EU and abandoning all our hard-won freedoms like the ability to strike more trade deals and cut more red tape.
“Make no mistake, Brexit would be in peril under Labour.”
General election: Follow the latest updates
Image: Sunak and three other Conservatives have launched Brexit-related attacks on Labour. Pic: PA
Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has claimed Starmer and Labour “have never believed in Britain’s ability to forge its own path”.
“Instead of using the opportunities, Starmer wants to renegotiate the Brexit deal, taking us back to square one of being a rule-taker from Brussels,” she added.
“Only the Conservatives will continue to take the bold action required to build a secure, independent future for our country.”
What have Labour said about Brexit and the EU?
Sir Keir last month told Sky News he plans to seek “a better [Brexit] deal than the one that we’ve got” if elected in next month’s general election.
“I don’t think many people look at that deal and think it’s working very well,” he said of the current trade arrangements. “We were promised an oven-ready deal and we got something that was, frankly, half-baked.”
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12:27
‘We need a better Brexit deal’
The Labour manifesto makes one mention of Brexit. It reads: “With Labour, Britain will stay outside of the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work.”
“We will reset the relationship and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbours and allies,” it continues. “That does not mean reopening the divisions of the past.
“There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.
“Instead, Labour will work to improve the UK’s trade and investment relationship with the EU, by tearing down unnecessary barriers to trade.”
More from Sky News: Farage ‘playing into Putin’s hands’, says PM How Starmer ‘set a trap’ for Boris Johnson
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Meanwhile, Home Secretary James Cleverly has claimed Labour will “open the door to 100,000 illegal migrants” in a piece for the Sunday Telegraph – which a Labour spokesperson has already labelled “desperate lies from a party that has totally failed to control our borders or manage the asylum system”.
And in The Times, Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove has said in a new interview: “I think one of the biggest question marks over Labour is what they would do in terms of relations with the EU because it is on the record that Starmer did everything he could to frustrate a Brexit deal and to secure a second referendum.
“I was in the room with him when we were trying to negotiate an agreement between Labour and the Conservatives under Theresa [May] to secure a Brexit deal.”
Meanwhile, as polls continue to predict Labour are heading for a comfortable majority, their national campaign co-ordinator has reminded the public: “Change will only happen if you vote for it.”
Labour’s national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden wrote in the Observer: “There is a danger that the debate in this election becomes consumed by polls and specifically by the idea that the outcome is somehow pre-determined… No way is this election a done deal.
“The headlines about the clutch of MRP polls disguise a huge level of uncertainty.”
New Brexit border controls will leave British consumers and businesses facing more than £500m in increased costs and possible delays – as well as shortages of food and fresh flowers imported from the European Union.
The new rules are intended to protect biosecurity by imposing controls on plant and animal products considered a “medium” risk. These include five categories of cut flowers, cheese and other dairy produce, chilled and frozen meat, and fish.
From 31 January, each shipment will have to be accompanied by a health certificate, provided by a local vet in the case of animal produce, and, from 30 April, shipments will be subject to physical checks at the British border.
The government’s modelling says the new controls will cost industry £330m, while the grocery industry has warned that £200m could be added to fresh fruit and vegetable prices should checks be introduced in the future.
There is also the prospect of delays caused by inspections of faulty paperwork, which could derail supply chains that rely entirely on fast turnaround of goods.
British importers have told Sky News that the new rules, which have already been delayed five times in three years, will add up to 17% to shipping costs, leading to higher prices for consumers.
European companies and industry groups say the controls are unnecessary as they replicate checks already made in the EU, and that Brexit is adding bureaucracy and cost to dealing with the UK.
The new import controls are a consequence of Britain having left both the single market and the customs union when the trade and co-operation deal with the EU came into force in January 2021.
While UK exporters to Europe were immediately subject to customs rules, the British government waived import controls to avoid damaging the economy and food supply.
Read more: UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU, report says UK car production industry warns of looming Brexit rules ‘threat’
On five occasions since 2021 ministers planned and then cancelled their introduction, in part because of fears that interrupting food supplies from the EU would exacerbate the cost of living crisis.
Almost 80% of UK vegetable imports and 40% of fruit comes from Europe.
In the Netherlands, the horticulture industry has called for a further delay to controls that will impact its £1bn-a-year trade with the UK, the second largest in Europe behind Germany, which accounts for around 90% of our cut flower and plant imports.
‘We’re going back in time’
Dutch flower wholesaler Heemskerk has been exporting to the UK since before it joined the common market.
The UK now requires that five types of flowers, including orchids and carnations, be checked in factories by a local inspector for two species of leaf mites that destroy foliage.
Managing director Nick van Bommel points out that the checks replicate the same processes made at the Dutch border if the plants are imported to Europe, and by his staff for trade within the EU.
Image: Managing director of Dutch flower wholesaler Heemskerk Nick van Bommel
“We’re going back in time. They want to have health inspections that we haven’t carried out for more than thirty years, and now from next week on we start again,” he said.
“It won’t help anybody, but it will make an awful lot of costs and somebody has to pay the bill at the end. I’m 100% sure that the last customer, the British consumer, has to pay for this.”
The Dutch association of floriculture wholesalers has asked the British government to delay the changes by another year.
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1:36
Why are farmers blocking roads in France?
Its spokesperson Tim Rozendaal told Sky News: “If Brexit was about cutting down Brussels’s red tape and bringing down costs, I don’t see the point.
“Anything that our industry has been facing since Brexit is longer red tape, additional costs and bureaucracy.”
At New Covent Garden Market in London, which receives shipments from the Netherlands within hours of flowers being cut, wholesalers are equally sceptical.
Freddie Heathcote, owner of Green & Bloom, calculates his shipping costs will rise by up to 17% – and the knock-on to consumers could be increases of 20% to 50% once the physical inspection regime is in place.
Image: Freddie Heathcote, owner of Green & Bloom
“We have been told the charge for consignments crossing at Dover or Folkestone will be £20 to £43 per category item listed on the consignment.
“We imported 28 different consignment lines tonight from one supplier, which would be £560 to £1,204 to clear the border control point on a total invoice of £7,000. That’s between 8% and 17% additional cost on an average import for us.”
The food industry is concerned too.
Patricia Michelson, founder of London cheese chain La Fromagerie, has been importing artisan cheese from across Europe for more than 40 years. She is concerned that the cost and hassle of sourcing veterinary checks in Europe will dissuade some suppliers.
Image: Patricia Michelson, founder of London cheese chain La Fromagerie
“We deal with suppliers who are one or two guys in a dairy with 50 or 100 sheep or 20 cows. Do they want to be paying for this new certificate to send to us?
“I assure you that most of them will say no. So the onus is on us… that means another extra cost, on top of all the costs so far to bring the produce in.”
Image: La Fromagerie
‘Disturbing confusion’
After months of preparation this week the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs added a host of common fruit and vegetables to the list of medium risk produce.
It initially said the produce would only face physical checks from October, but 48 hours later changed the rules again, saying they would give three months notice when health declarations and physical checks are required.
The late change attracted criticism from leading trade body the Institute of Export and International Trade.
“The confusion caused by the announcement… is disturbing, particularly at a point when significant changes are being planned for the general operation of the UK border,” said its general secretary Marco Forgione.
A government spokesman said: “We are committed to delivering the most advanced border in the world. The Border Target Operating Model is key to delivering this, protecting the UK’s biosecurity from potentially harmful pests and diseases and maintaining trust in our exports.
“We are taking a phased approach – including initially not requiring pre-notification and inspections for EU medium risk fruit and vegetables and other medium risk goods – to support businesses and ensure the efficient trade is maintained between the EU and Great Britain.”
The Port of Dover has announced an end to its critical incident following a weekend of travel chaos which saw some coach passengers caught up in 14-hour-long queues.
The port declared a critical incident on Friday with coaches particularly affected by the traffic as passengers – including school pupils – waited to be processed at border controls.
Those hoping to get away for their Easter break on Sunday night faced a few more hours waiting to be processed at border controls before getting on a ferry.
But in its latest statement on Monday morning, the port said all coach traffic had now been processed through immigration controls.
“The critical incident has been stood down,” the port said in its statement.
“The Port of Dover continued working round the clock with the ferry operators and border agencies to get coach passengers on their way and the backlog is now cleared.
“Along with the final coaches being processed through the port, all tourist cars and freight vehicles were also processed successfully.
“We continue to offer our sincere apologies to all those affected by the prolonged delays that have occurred over this weekend.”
A “full review” will now be launched by the port to ensure “improvements are made” ahead of Easter weekend – typically one of the busiest travel days of the year in the UK.
On Monday, P&O Ferries also announced that a buffer zone – set up to control traffic entering the port – had been cleared.
P&O Ferries previously advised coach drivers to head straight to the port to wait in buffer zone queues, where advance passenger information (AP) would be taken, and warned there could be a 10-hour wait.
“All coaches that have just passed border control will be on the next crossing to Calais. We apologise again for the wait times experienced in Dover this weekend,” the company said in a statement.
Is Brexit a factor?
On Sunday, Home Secretary Suella Braverman denied Brexit was the main reason for the queues.
Speaking to Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday, she said: “I don’t think that is fair to say that this is an adverse effect of Brexit.
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19:47
‘Situation improving’ in Dover
“I think we have seen we have had many years now since leaving the European Union and there’s been, on the whole, very good cooperation and processes.
“But at acute times, when there’s a lot of pressure crossing the Channel whether the tunnel or the ferries, then I think there’s always going to be a backup.
“And I just urge everyone to be a bit patient while the ferry companies work their way through the backlog.”
The home secretary also downplayed fears that delays at Dover could become a regular occurrence that risks ruining school holiday plans, suggesting things have been “operating very smoothly at the border” in general.
But Conservative MP and former minister Sir Robert Buckland suggested Brexit had played a part in the disruption.
He said: “I think for my layman’s eye, looking on, it does seem that there’s a confluence of issues.
“I think that there’s no doubt that some of the increased checks that now are necessary since we left the EU will be a part of that.
Image: Sir Robert Buckland
“I think it’s all the authorities on both sides of the channel, both the French and the British authorities, have to work even harder to make sure that those short straits are working as effectively as possible at times of maximum pressure.”
Conservative MP for Bournemouth East, Tobias Ellwood, also blamed Brexit. In a Tweet, he wrote: “Of course, it’s connected to Brexit.
“Our current Brexit model resulted in an end to travel freedoms. But as they weren’t replaced with new ones – processing takes longer – hence the delays.
“To compound matters – in November fingerprint scans begin. Hence we need a Brexit upgrade.”
‘Carnage’
Extra sailings were run over the weekend in a bid to clear the backlog, but by Sunday morning the port still estimated some travellers would face waits of up to eight hours, depending on the ferry operator.
The port had previously declared a critical incident and said the delays were “due to lengthy French border processes and sheer volume”.
Port officials said they had been “working round the clock” with ferry operators and border agencies to try to get coach passengers on their way and more than 300 coaches left the port on Saturday, while the freight backlog was cleared and tourist cars had been successfully processed.
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Image: Coach and lorries waiting for French border checks on Saturday
One passenger, Rosie Pearson, described the travel scenes in Dover on Saturday as “carnage” as she was stuck for 16 hours with her husband and two teenagers.
The 50-year-old environmental campaigner from Essex was travelling to Val d’Isere in the French Alps on an overnight bus.
‘It didn’t need to be this way’
Shadow levelling up secretary Lisa Nandy said “a range of factors” have caused the delays, but said the government had not planned for what was going to happen post-Brexit.
She told Sophy Ridge On Sunday that ministers had “known for a very long time that they needed to make sure that there were resources in place to deal with additional paperwork checks”.
“The point is not whether we left the European Union or not. The point was that we left with a government that made big promises and once again didn’t deliver,” she said.
“I really feel for the families that are trying to get away for an Easter break, people who have been caught up in this chaos, people whose livelihoods are threatened.
“It didn’t need to be this way. If the government got a grip, got down to brass tacks and started doing their actual job, all these things could be avoided.”
UK and EU officials will sign off on a new Brexit deal in London today, despite ongoing opposition from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
The Windsor Framework – designed to address problems with the post-Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol – was agreed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last month.
The plan was symbolically approved in the Commons earlier this week by a large margin after a vote on one of its elements – the Stormont brake – as well as getting the nod from the Council of the EU.
The Stormont brake is a mechanism that aims to allow assembly members to flag their concerns about changes to or introductions of new EU legislation that will affect the region, giving the UK government the option to veto them.
The DUP and some prominent Tory Brexiteers – including Boris Johnson and Liz Truss – voted against the deal, saying they still had concerns about EU law taking precedence in Northern Ireland.
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson – whose party has refused to form an executive in Northern Ireland until the protocol, negotiated by Mr Johnson, was ditched – has said the new policy is unlikely to lead his party back into a power-sharing agreement in Stormont.
However, in a release ahead of the meeting, the government said the UK and EU had “fundamentally changed the old protocol, fixing the practical problems and securing a new way forward for a prosperous, stable future for Northern Ireland”.
Read more: What role will EU rules continue to play in Northern Ireland? The Boris Johnson and Brexit bandwagons seem to be fading – analysis
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the framework would deliver on the government’s commitment “to provide stability and certainty” for the region.
“The framework is the best deal for Northern Ireland, safeguarding its place in the Union and protecting the Belfast [Good Friday] Agreement,” he added.
Mr Cleverly will give formal approval to the framework today alongside the European Commission’s Maros Sefcovic.
Rishi Sunak says Britain and the EU have an understanding on what needs to be done around the Northern Ireland Protocol, but that work still needs to be done.
The prime minister spoke about where things stand following his speech at the Munich Security Conference, saying that Britain wanted to have a positive relationship with the EU.
So what is actually going on?
I thought we had a Brexit deal, what is this agreement that Rishi Sunak is trying to get?
These talks are all about the part of the Brexit deal that relates to Northern Ireland.
Dubbed the “Northern Ireland Protocol”, it was agreed with the EU by Boris Johnson in 2020 – alongside the wider trade and co-operation treaty.
The point of it is to avoid a hard physical border on the island of Ireland – the only place where there is a land frontier between the UK and EU.
All parties agreed this was necessary to preserve peace on the island.
The protocol does this by placing Northern Ireland in a far tighter relationship with the EU, compared with the rest of the UK.
Since the Brexit deal fully came into force at the start of 2021, there has been an ongoing process to iron out the various issues it has thrown up relating to Northern Ireland.
That has escalated over time to the point where a new agreement is now being worked on.
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2:36
There’s new hope of a breakthrough to end years of deadlock between the UK and the European Union over post-Brexit trade arrangements
What practical changes are needed?
To avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, physical checks take place when goods cross the Irish Sea from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
Companies and traders in Northern Ireland also have to comply with EU single market rules.
This has all caused friction in the flows of goods coming from England, Wales and Scotland with shortages of certain items in shops and onerous paperwork for businesses.
EU rules on food stuffs has also meant a potential ban on sausages and other “chilled meats” coming from Great Britain.
There are also upsides of the deal though. As Northern Ireland essentially still has one foot in the EU single market, it’s easier for businesses there to trade on the continent.
What’s been the political fallout in Belfast?
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) unionist politicians in Belfast believe Northern Ireland is being carved out from the rest of the UK and treated in too different a fashion.
This stems in part from the practical problems being experienced by businesses.
There’s also concern over a so-called “democratic deficit” whereby Northern Ireland takes on rules from Brussels that it has no say over.
There are more ideological issues too. The role played by the European Court of Justice is a big sticking point.
Because Northern Ireland is still subject to EU rules, Brussels believes its court should have a heavy involvement in resolving disputes.
The DUP and some Conservative MPs see this as an erosion of the UK’s sovereignty and incompatible with the aims of Brexit.
Image: The iconic site of Harland & Wolff’s shipyard in Belfast
How does this relate to the Northern Ireland assembly?
The DUP is one of two parties that shares power in the devolved government in Northern Ireland.
But the party has been staging a boycott and refusing to allow this executive to form or the elected assembly to sit until its concerns over the Brexit deal are addressed.
This has meant the democratic institutions that are supposed to be running public services in Northern Ireland and representing voters haven’t been functioning properly for more than a year.
Sinn Fein – the republican party that also shares powers in Belfast – has urged the DUP to approve the changes to the Brexit deal and go back into power-sharing as soon as possible.
What will be in the new deal?
We don’t really know. Downing Street has been keeping quiet about the details.
Speculation is that parts of it will look quite similar to plans outlined by the UK last year.
There may be a “green lane” and “red lane” system to separate goods destined for Northern Ireland from those at risk of being transported to the Republic and on to the EU.
This should reduce the need for physical checks and paperwork. Some sort of compromise is also likely on the role of the European Court of Justice.
There could potentially be a mechanism whereby the ECJ can only decide on a dispute after a referral from a separate arbitration panel or a Northern Irish court.
Read more: Britain and EU NI deal ‘by no means done’ Northern Ireland election delayed until January 2024
Will the DUP support it?
This is the big unknown. The party has come up with seven “tests” that it will apply to any deal when deciding whether to back it.
These contain some specific requests, such as there being no checks on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and no border in the Irish Sea.
But there are also broader points such as allowing the people of Northern Ireland the same privileges as everyone else in the United Kingdom and guaranteeing the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.
There are also electoral considerations, a sizeable chunk of the unionist community in Northern Ireland believes the DUP should only go back into power-sharing if the Northern Ireland Protocol is scrapped completely.
So if the DUP is seen to cave too easily, the party could lose voters to more hard line rivals.
Will Tory MPs support it?
Again, we just don’t know. It’s also unclear whether MPs will actually get a Commons vote on the new agreement. Downing Street hasn’t committed to one.
But not allowing MPs to have a say would risk inflaming tensions with backbenchers.
The main audience the prime minister needs to please here is the “European Research Group” of pro-Brexit MPs.
They claim otherwise, but the caucus isn’t really as powerful as it was a few years ago.
Many senior members are now in government including the Home Secretary Suella Braverman, the Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris and his junior minister Steve Baker.
They will all need to be happy before the deal is published. In fact, they could play a part in getting Eurosceptic colleagues on board.
The reaction of Boris Johnson could also prove crucial. If the former prime minister came out against his successor’s deal, that could galvanise backbench anger.
Labour has said it will lend Rishi Sunak votes if he can’t push the deal through on his own. But this would be an embarrassing development for the prime minister that would risk further instability in his own party.
What happens if Rishi Sunak can’t get everybody on board?
The prime minister can live with some dissent from his MPs. Failing to win the support of the DUP is more serious though, as it means the party will continue to block the formation of the devolved executive in Belfast.
If the objections from the DUP seem less forceful, Mr Sunak could proceed anyway and hope they eventually come onboard after May’s local elections.
If he runs into a solid roadblock with both his MPs and the DUP and can’t get further concessions from the EU, then there is still the option of invoking the Northern Ireland Protocol Act.
This is UK legislation currently making its way through Parliament that would strip away parts of the Brexit deal without the approval of the EU.
Many see it as contravening international law and using it risks a trade war with Brussels. That’s something the government could do without, given the delicate economic situation.
What if Rishi Sunak gets his deal through with support from everybody?
If the prime minister can fix the Brexit deal, restore power-sharing in Belfast and keep his party together then it will be the undeniable high point of his time in Downing Street so far.
He will be able to claim that he solved an issue that has bedevilled his three predecessors.
It also has the potential of being a significant political inflexion point.
If the economic situation improves and he can also bring forward tangible action on strikes and Channel crossings, then there is a chance that the gloomy electoral outlook for the government begins to brighten.
But I thought Boris Johnson said Brexit was done?
Yes, he did. He also promised that his deal would not lead to a border in the Irish Sea.
At the time, many inside and outside of politics warned that the text of the agreement he signed would mean checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The former prime minister and his allies now say no one expected the EU to enforce the agreement in such a strict and inflexible way. The real answer to all this may lie in the politics of the time.
In 2019, Boris Johnson was eager to get a deal agreed with Brussels and campaign in a general election on the back of it.
This meant some of the thornier parts of the treaty were somewhat played down at the time. But it also stored up problems that Rishi Sunak is now trying to fix.
If this deal goes through, will Brexit then be done?
It will be more “done” than it ever has been. But overall, not really.
For a start, the Northern Ireland Protocol has a consent mechanism built into it, meaning that members of the devolved assembly in Belfast will vote next year on whether to keep the arrangement.
If a simple majority of Stormont members approves the deal, then it will remain in place for four years, at which point another vote will take place.
If it passes with a higher approval percentage in both unionist and republican parties, then the next vote will happen in eight years’ time. Then there’s the issue of the UK signing trade deals with other countries around the world.
This could mean changes to domestic rules and regulations that would have a knock-on impact for Northern Ireland and for the UK’s broader relationship with the EU.
Future governments may also decide to take a different approach with Brussels meaning Brexit and the country’s relationship with its closest neighbours will stay a live issue for a good time yet.
