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Why the damning first COVID inquiry report may be the most important | UK News

While this may be the first report of many to come from an inquiry expected to last at least four years – it is perhaps the most important.

Of the catalogue of failures, flaws or missed opportunities that played out during the pandemic, many stemmed from the UK’s lack of a plan and resources to deal an inevitable threat.

Perhaps inquiry chair Baroness Hallett’s most damning conclusion is that in 2019 the UK believed itself to be one of the countries best prepared for a pandemic.

Back in 2010, David Cameron’s government set up a National Security Council with responsibility for biological threats, like pandemics.

Plans were made, exercises across Whitehall were conducted, stockpiles of medicines and PPE were established.

But what COVID taught us – through 230,000 deaths, two million more living with long COVID, families destroyed and around £370bn in costs to taxpayers alone – is that plans and preparations were totally inadequate.

There’s no doubt COVID blindsided scientists. Previous coronavirus outbreaks were very different in terms of the way the disease behaved.

The focus on plans for an influenza pandemic is understandable – it was, and remains, one of the most grave pandemic threats we face.

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‘Planned for wrong pandemic’

But what this report has found is even the lessons learned from planning for the wrong pandemic could have improved the response to COVID, had they been properly acted on and shared beyond central government.

The fact, for example, that those with physical or learning disabilities, pre-existing conditions, those in ethnic minorities or living in deprived areas would be disproportionately affected.

The fact that social care, particularly care homes, would bear the brunt of a respiratory virus’s harm – and a huge surge in resources there would be needed in the event of a pandemic.

These issues, which were central to the loss of life and suffering caused between 2020 and 2022, were known. Just some of the “fatal strategic flaws” in assessing risks to society before the pandemic, according to Baroness Hallett.

Her recommendations hope to ensure we are significantly better prepared in future.

Ensuring a single cabinet-level committee responsible for civil emergencies like pandemics seems an obvious and sensible step and whatever strategy is put in place is reviewed, at least every three years along with rehearsals for a pandemic.

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But also, whatever they learn or conclude should be informed by and shared with local authorities, voluntary and community organisations to ensure Whitehall plans work in the places where the harm is greatest – as cruelly demonstrated by COVID.

What the chair of this inquiry wants to see – echoing calls from other recent inquiries like that into the infected blood scandal – is some mechanism is established that requires governments to act.

The economic and political landscape is in constant flux, but so too are the deadly pathogens that mutate and spread in an increasingly connected world.

Implementing the lessons learned from the COVID pandemic isn’t just necessary, it’s urgent.

Shock fall in retail sales at COVID lockdown levels in key shopping month | Business News

There has been a shock fall in retail sales in the key December shopping period, sharpening the decline seen in recent months, official figures show.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales fell an unexpected 3.2%, despite Christmas and reported discounts offered by major chains and some positive reports by major high street outfits.

Not since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, in January 2021, had retail sales fallen at such a level.

It has been a far worse performance than the 0.5% drop expected by economists and a reversal of the 1.3% growth seen in November when discounts got people spending.

Retail sales figures are important as household consumption is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can be indicative of overall economic growth.

The UK already had a quarter of economic contraction from July to September last year.

A second three-month period of economic decline would mean the UK is technically in recession.

A country is technically in recession after two-quarters of negative growth.

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Cabinet secretary Simon Case back at work after missing COVID inquiry, reshuffle and Rwanda row | Politics News

Simon Case, the head of the civil service, has returned to work after more than two months on sick leave.

The cabinet secretary, who has not publicly disclosed his illness, has been attending meetings in the last few days, the Politics At Jack And Sam’s Podcast revealed today.

Mr Case was originally due to be off for four weeks from 23 October but this period was extended through the rest of the autumn.

Listen to the podcast below for more on Simon Case and a look ahead at the week’s political news.

He was unable to attend as a witness before the COVID inquiry, although Heather Hallett, the COVID inquiry chair, said he will still be asked to give evidence to the inquiry at a later date.

She allowed him to skip his scheduled questioning after reviewing his medical records.

Mr Case was also absent during a reshuffle and the constitutional and political turmoil of the Rwanda Bill, while the civil service received criticism for factually inaccurate social media posts over the legal immigration change.

More on Politics At Jack And Sam’s Podcast

Some senior figures in government had been unsure whether he would ever return to the critical role.

However, he attended a gathering of permanent secretaries at an away day before Christmas and has been seen in meetings in the last few days.

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At this point, he indicated that while still recovering, he expected to return at some point.

Civil servants have not been informed more widely that Mr Case is back at work, however, and there is some anger about being kept in the dark.

The job had been split between four different permanent secretaries in his absence.

COVID inquiry about ‘scapegoating’ senior government figures, Boris Johnson’s sister says | Politics News

The COVID inquiry is about “scapegoating” those at the top of government, Boris Jonnson’s sister has told the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast. 

Ahead of the former prime minister taking the stand on Wednesday and Thursday, Rachel Johnson has said the multi-year inquiry is a “show trial” just like the Parliamentary Privileges inquiry into partygate.

She told the podcast by Sky News and Politico that “100% it’s about scapegoating because, as I said, it’s already been agreed that lockdown was the right thing to do.

“Therefore, the only questions they can really ask is, was it done properly? And if not, who do we blame? So this is going to follow the model of all public inquiries in recent years.

“Rather than learn lessons for the future, for the next pandemic, which is going to come down the pike. They are spending £100m of taxpayers’ money working out who to blame most for the past rather than using that money to get our pandemic plan or our pandemic response geared up and match fit for the next pandemic. It is driving me mad.”

Mr Johnson is expected to issue an apology on behalf of the government about the early handling of the pandemic, but defend his personal behaviour. He will point to shifting advice and the nature of the pandemic, as well as a desire to pit advisers against one another to get the best out of them.

Rachel Johnson says that while of course the government led by her brother made mistakes, it also did things well and “they should be applauded”.

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Rachel Johnson talks to Trevor Phillips
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Rachel Johnson

However, she does suggest the government was not well equipped for the types of decisions it needed to take because lockdown affected people’s homes and the key figures in the room were all men.

“It was an ill-equipped government to take these massive decisions that affected the everyday lives of the entire country because they only had four blokes basically in the room, you know, Matt Hancock, Cummings, Michael Gove and the one we are not mentioning [Mr Johnson],” she said.

“And at the time I thought this is probably insane that these four men, who’ve never changed a nappy or, as Alison Pearson so brilliantly said, couldn’t pick out their own children in a school photo, are micro-managing every single aspect of our lives.”

The COVID inquiry rejects any suggestion that it has pre-determined its findings.

Find out more about what Boris Johnson will tell the COVID inquiry on the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast.

Boris Johnson: We have a sense of how the Comeback Kid plans to approach the COVID inquiry – but will it work? | Politics News

You can’t write him off.

Boris Johnson has found his way back into the public’s good books before and if his hopes of a political comeback are still alive, the coming week could be a decisive moment.

The preparations are under way. The former prime minister has spent many hours with barristers, studying 6,000 pages of material to put together a testimony that reflects favourably on his leadership during the pandemic.

The early drafts have been briefed to The Times. These do not provide a full account of what Mr Johnson is preparing to say but do offer a glimpse into his redemption strategy.

That strategy is two-pronged. On the one hand, he will wholeheartedly apologise for his mistakes – perhaps realising that some of his former colleagues have come off badly after failing to show contrition.

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Cummings says PM was known as a ‘trolley’

However, the mea culpa will only go so far. Like others who have gone before him, Mr Johnson wants the history books to remember him favourably.

His argument will be that his government got the big calls right: increasing hospital capacity at speed, procuring ventilators and, of course, the vaccine rollout.

He will also carefully position himself in the division that is forming between the scientific and medical advisors and his former cabinet colleagues.

Like Matt Hancock, Mr Johnson will avoid criticism of Rishi Sunak and his controversial Eat Out to Help Out Scheme. He will claim that Sir Patrick Vallance and Sir Chris Whitty were consulted before it was launched. That is something they both reject.

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Hancock defends COVID strategy

Mr Johnson has the advantage of going after many of his former colleagues. It means he has time to prepare his response to the unflattering depictions that have been made by former colleagues.

Dominic Cummings, his former advisor, described him as a “trolley”, constantly veering from side to side and incapable of taking decisive action. As apologetic as he is feeling, Mr Johnson is unlikely to accept that characterisation.

He will undoubtedly have opinions of his own about Mr Cummings but he may deem it unwise to engage in personal attacks. It is not something that is playing well with the public.

Mr Johnson’s team deny this leaked draft has come from his camp but he may well have wanted to get his narrative out before it is painstakingly unpicked by lawyers.

We have a sense now of his version of events, but will it bear scrutiny?

‘Let the bodies pile high’: Boris Johnson did make controversial remark despite ex-PM’s denials, veteran aide claims at COVID inquiry | Politics News

Boris Johnson said he would rather “let the bodies pile high” than impose another lockdown in September 2020, according to one of his most veteran aides – despite the former prime minister denying making the remark several times.

Edward Udny-Lister made the revelation to the COVID inquiry today – and also told Lady Hallett that Mr Johnson asked to be injected with COVID live on TV in March 2020 to show the virus was not a threat.

The bodies comment backs up reports in The Daily Mail and allegations made by Dominic Cummings in 2021.

Mr Johnson denied making the remarks on numerous occasions – both on television and in the House of Commons.

Politics latest: Johnson wanted to be injected with COVID on TV

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Misleading the House of Commons was at the centre of Mr Johnson’s resignation from the Commons as an MP.

Lord Udny-Lister worked with Mr Johnson when he was mayor of London, as well as when he was the foreign secretary.

He was one of the most senior aides to Mr Johnson in Downing Street – alongside Mr Cummings – and ultimately replaced Mr Cummings as chief of staff.

Lord Udny-Lister’s statement to the inquiry said: “In September 2020, the R number was rising. A circuit breaker was proposed in response to this increase and the health secretary was pushing hard for this to take place.

“However, the opposition to any form of lockdown was intense.

“I recall the PM saying in September 2020 that he would rather ‘let the bodies pile high’ than impose another lockdown.

“Whilst this was an unfortunate turn of phrase, it should be born [sic] in mind that by this point the government was trying to avoid a further lockdown given the already severe impact on the economy and education.”

A spokesman for Mr Johnson said the former prime minister would be giving evidence to the inquiry in due course.

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2021: PM asked about ‘bodies pile high’ comment

Unlike Mr Cummings, Lord Udny-Lister is a long-term ally of Mr Johnson.

His evidence was given on another illuminating day at the official COVID inquiry.

As well as the above claims, Lord Udny-Lister laid out the dysfunctionality of Downing Street – especially in the early days of the pandemic.

The adviser – who had a desk opposite Mr Cummings – said: “Some of the personalities made it very, very toxic… Dominic Cummings’s relationship with other people had become very strained.”

And messages released to the inquiry revealed that Mark Sedwill – then the head of the civil service – said in July 2020 that “it’s hard to ask people to [march] to the sound of gunfire if they’re shot in the back”.

Simon Case – who is now the head of the civil service – responded by saying: “I’ve never seen a bunch of people less well-equipped to run a country.”

Chief Strategic Advisor to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Sir Edward Lister, in Downing Street, Westminster, London.
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Lord Udny-Lister was a senior adviser to Boris Johnson

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He added that “top-drawer” potential recruits had refused to work in Downing Street because of the “toxic reputation” of the setup.

Lord Udny-Lister also spoke of a distrust or dislike within Downing Street for including devolved administrations within decision-making, as it was felt that that decisions would be briefing or introduced early by Scotland for “political” reasons.

Before the political appointee gave evidence, Simon Ridley – who was head of the COVID-19 taskforce within Number 10 – was before the lawyers.

At one point, he confirmed that the taskforce – which coordinated COVID policy – was “blindsided” by Rishi Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out announcement. He said the decision was instead made by the then chancellor and Mr Johnson.

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Another point to come out of Mr Ridley’s evidence was an email sent by Alexandra Burns, a Number 10 official, in April 2020. This asked if there was an “overall strategy” for care homes – adding that looking at Europe made it seem like one was necessary as “once someone gets [COVID] in one of these places many die”.

A diary extract from Sir Patrick Vallance, the former chief scientific adviser, wrote in his diary in October 2020 that he had a “very bad meeting” in Downing Street, in which Mr Johnson called for a “whisky and a revolver” and Mr Sunak was “using increasingly specific and spurious arguments against closing hospitality”.

COVID inquiry: Civil servants ‘wanted’ people to get coronavirus days before lockdown was announced | Politics News

Senior civil servants “wanted” people to get COVID like chickenpox to build herd immunity, according to messages read out during an inquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic.

Sir Christopher Wormald remains the most senior civil servant in the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) – as he was in early 2020.

Messages he exchanged with Mark Sedwill – then the head of the Civil Service – were shown to the inquiry.

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These were sent on 12 March 2020.

Lord Sedwill said: “I don’t think PM & Co have internalised yet the distinction between minimising mortality and not trying to stop most people getting it.

“Indeed presumably like chickenpox we want people to get it and develop herd immunity before the next wave.

“We just want them not to get it all at once and preferably when it’s warn (sic) and dry etc.”

Sir Christopher responded: “Exactly right. We make the point every meeting, they don’t quite get it.”

A lot of time during the inquiry has been taken up on when the government change from planning to mitigate people getting the virus, to preventing the spread of the virus and locking down.

Messages between Mark Sedwill and Sir Chris Wormald shown to the COVID inquiry
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Messages between Mark Sedwill and Sir Chris Wormald shown to the COVID inquiry

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On 14 March, the then-health secretary, Matt Hancock, wrote in The Daily Telegraph: “We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy.

“Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.”

On 23 March, Boris Johnson enacted lockdown.

Dominic Cummings, who was a political appointee by Mr Johnson, repeatedly criticised the Civil Service while he gave evidence to the inquiry.

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COVID: No 10 in ‘complete chaos’

On the same day as the civil servants were talking, Mr Cummings complained in a WhatsApp message that Lord Sedwill had been “babbling about chickenpox”, adding “god f****** help us”.

Speaking to the inquiry on Tuesday, Mr Cummings said Lord Sedwill told Mr Johnson: “PM, you should go on TV and should explain that this is like the old days with chickenpox and people are going to have chickenpox parties. And the sooner a lot of people get this and get it over with the better sort of thing.”

In a post on social media, Mr Cummings responded to the messages published today.

He said: “The reason the [Lord Sedwill] suggested to the PM on 12/3 to tell the country to hold chickenpox parties – and me/Ben Warner said ‘you must stop saying this’ – is [Sir Christopher], *in charge of ‘the plan’*, was telling him this was the f****** plan!!!

“Holy s*** this is truly atrocious and explains so much.”

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Sir Christopher, who was pushed by inquiry lawyers to explain the messages, said that it was a reference to herd immunity but argued it was “reflecting the state of the scientific advice at that point”.

He said he had been “very, very loose in my reply” and that he had at the time been following the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage – advice.

Dominic Cummings reveals when he will give evidence to COVID inquiry – as he describes ‘painful’ process | Politics News

Boris Johnson’s chief adviser during the coronavirus pandemic, Dominic Cummings, has said he will give evidence to the UK COVID-19 Inquiry later this month.

Mr Cummings used his latest Substack post to reveal he had been going through his statement with inquiry lawyers, describing the process as “painful”.

“I finally sent it in on Thursday. I give evidence on 31/10,” he wrote.

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Mr Cummings was Mr Johnson’s closest aide when the pandemic emerged, and the government was forced to defend him after he drove to County Durham beauty spot Barnard Castle during the first lockdown.

But he left Downing Street in November 2020 following infighting in No 10 and has since become a fierce critic of the former prime minister, suggesting he was indecisive in the response to coronavirus.

In his blog, Mr Cummings said he would eventually do a “post-evidence AMA (ask me anything)” on his and other people’s statements to the inquiry, but he had been asked not to write about it yet.

He also criticised the pace of the inquiry, which began this summer and has so far heard evidence from significant political figures, including former health secretary Matt Hancock and ex-prime minister David Cameron.

Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie
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Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie

The first part of the inquiry looked at the UK’s resilience and preparedness for a pandemic.

The second part of the public inquiry – which focuses on “core decision making and political governance” – started at the beginning of this month and will also see Mr Johnson give evidence.

The inquiry has already heard how Mr Johnson described long COVID as “b*******” and that his wife, Carrie, had been described as “the real person in charge” by the head of the UK’s civil service.

Scientific advisers have also given evidence, with Professor Stephen Riley telling the inquiry on Tuesday that there could have been fewer deaths if the UK went into the first lockdown two weeks earlier.

Meanwhile, Professor Neil Ferguson – whose COVID modelling was instrumental to the UK going into lockdown – denied stepping “over the line” and telling ministers they needed to shut down.

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He said while he is “very much associated with a particular policy… the reality was a lot more complex”.

“I don’t think I stepped over that line to say: ‘We need to do this now’,” he said.

“What I tried to do was, at times – which was stepping outside the scientific advisory role – to try and focus people’s minds on what was going to happen and the consequences of current trends.”

Should we be worried about the new COVID variant? | UK News

The emergence of a new COVID variant, BA.2.8, has pushed forward the winter vaccination programme, with the rollout starting on Monday in England for older adult care home residents and immunosuppressed people.

All over-65s will be offered the jab during the next few weeks.

The other nations are also beginning their vaccination programmes this month.

On the Sky News Daily, Niall Paterson is joined by Professor Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), to discuss the new variant, and the importance of getting vulnerable people vaccinated.

Plus, our chief correspondent Stuart Ramsey talks to Niall from the epicentre of the earthquake in Morocco, which has killed 2,500 people so far.

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New COVID variant with ‘high number of mutations’ detected in UK | UK News

A new COVID variant with a “high number of mutations” has been detected in the UK.

The mutation, known as BA.2.86, was identified in the UK on Friday in an individual with no recent travel history, the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) said.

This means there could already be “significant community transmission” among Britons, the agency said.

The “high number of mutations” – 33 to be precise – means that spike proteins, the membranes on the outside of the virus that allow it to enter and infect human cells, will change their shape.

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“Having changed their shape, they may become more infectious, they may become more disease-causing,” Dr Bharat Pankhania, an infectious disease control expert from the University of Exeter, told Sky News.

“On the other hand, they may not. We just don’t know yet,” he said.

The BA.2.86 mutation was first detected in Denmark on 24 July and has also been discovered in Israel and the US.

It is thought to be the likely ancestor of the BA.2 variant, nicknamed “stealth Omicron”, which originated in southern Africa and was first detected in the UK by late 2021.

Pic: UK Health Security Agency
Image:
Pic: UK Health Security Agency

It comes after a variant known as EG.5.1 was reported to be making up one in seven new cases in the UK.

The UKHSA said there is “insufficient data” to assess how serious the BA.2.86 strain might be, or how likely it is that current vaccines will protect against it.

It is “the most striking SARS-CoV-2 strain the world has witnessed since the emergence of Omicron”, Francois Balloux, professor of computational systems biology and director of the UCL Genetics Institute at University College London, said.

However, it is unlikely to cause a fresh wave of severe disease and deaths, or prompt fresh restrictions on people’s daily lives, because most people have some immunity to the illness.

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“Even if people get reinfected by BA.2.86, immune memory will still allow their immune system to kick in and control the infection far more effectively,” Prof Balloux said.

“It remains that a large wave of infection by BA.2.86, or any future comparable variant, would be an unwelcome event.”

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Why UK COVID rates are rising

It is likely to have emerged in an immunocompromised person – someone who has a weaker immune system – who later spread it, Prof Balloux said.

He said that global vaccination is the best thing to do to reduce infections.

The UKHSA said it is “undertaking detailed assessment” and will provide further information on the new variant in due course.