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Public investment ‘badly needed’ to prevent UK’s national debt rising to risky levels, IMF warns | Business News

Public investment in new technologies and the energy transition is “badly needed” to drive growth in the UK and prevent the national debt rising to risky levels, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

Speaking as Rachel Reeves travelled to Washington to attend her first IMF annual meeting as chancellor, the body identified the UK as an advanced economy at risk of allowing borrowing to rise well in excess of pre-COVID levels.

The IMF’s annual fiscal monitor report, which assesses tax and spending plans across global economies, projects that UK net debt will increase from 91.6% of GDP this year to 96.4% by 2029.

Vitor Gaspar, director of fiscal affairs at the IMF, warned that the UK’s national debt level is “high, rising and risky”, but told Sky News that a combination of relatively high interest rates and low growth made public investment a priority.

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“If I were to give you my concern about the UK… I would put it as follows. The UK is living with interest rates close to US interest rates, but with growth rates that are not close to US levels.

“That leads to a theme that has been amply debated in the UK. Public investment as a percentage of GDP has been trending down and, given the challenges associated with the energy transition, new technologies, technological innovation and much else, public investment is badly needed.”

He warned that the UK’s challenge was not unique in a world where global debt has reached $100trn and rising.

“In most countries, fiscal plans that governments have put in place are insufficient to deliver stable or declining public debt ratios with a high degree of confidence. Additional efforts are necessary. Delaying adjustment is costly and risky. Kicking the can down the road won’t do. The time to act is now.”

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In comments likely to be welcomed by Ms Reeves, who is expected to adjust the government’s debt rules to allow more borrowing in her first budget next week, Mr Gaspar said she should not rule out borrowing to invest.

“Public investment should be protected in the framework of a set of rules and budgetary procedures that foster sound macroeconomic performance. The fact that that debate is very much at the centre of the debate in the UK right now is very much welcome.”

Ms Reeves is expected to make public investment a core plank of a budget in which she will seek to raise close to £40bn via tax increases and spending cuts, while also trying to kick-start growth.

Total public and private investment levels in the UK are the lowest in the G7 and have been for 24 of the last 30 years, according to thinktank the IPPR.

She will gather with fellow finance ministers from more than 190 countries in Washington on Thursday, a gathering also attended by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

Great South Run cancelled as organisers warn of ‘high tide levels’ and ‘potential debris’ | UK News

The Great South Run has been cancelled due to “high winds and rain” forecast, with the risk of “high tide levels and “potential debris” on Sunday.

More than 20,000 runners were expected to take part in the event, which was set to take participants along the coast in Southsea, Portsmouth.

Organisers said they had been “closely monitoring the weather conditions” but they had not improved enough for the event to be “safely staged”.

A statement read: “The forecasted winds and gusts compromise our event infrastructure including our medical facilities at the finish and around the course. This combined with high tide levels, potential debris, and the exposure along the seafront mean that we can’t guarantee the safe delivery of the event.

“We haven’t taken this decision lightly and have been liaising closely with the Met Office, medical & safety teams, local authorities and key stakeholders throughout the week to make the best-informed decision.

“We know how disappointing this is and we hope you can understand why this decision has been made.”

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Shock fall in retail sales at COVID lockdown levels in key shopping month | Business News

There has been a shock fall in retail sales in the key December shopping period, sharpening the decline seen in recent months, official figures show.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales fell an unexpected 3.2%, despite Christmas and reported discounts offered by major chains and some positive reports by major high street outfits.

Not since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, in January 2021, had retail sales fallen at such a level.

It has been a far worse performance than the 0.5% drop expected by economists and a reversal of the 1.3% growth seen in November when discounts got people spending.

Retail sales figures are important as household consumption is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can be indicative of overall economic growth.

The UK already had a quarter of economic contraction from July to September last year.

A second three-month period of economic decline would mean the UK is technically in recession.

A country is technically in recession after two-quarters of negative growth.

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Energy bills to fall from today but will still cost almost double pre-crisis levels | Business News

Households will pay less for their gas and electricity from today but bills will still be almost double what they were before the energy crisis.

The average household energy bill will fall by £426 a year from 1 July after Ofgem dropped its price cap following tumbling wholesale prices.

People had been advised to submit meter readings before midnight on 30 June to ensure they are paying the lower prices as soon as they come into effect.

Cost of living latest – Huge drop in UK house prices predicted

Those who could not are advised to do so as close to the date as possible, taking a time-stamped photo as proof.

The industry regulator is cutting its price cap from £3,280 to £2,074.

The change is a relief for consumers who have seen typical bills rocket upwards from £1,271 a year in October 2021 due to soaring power prices driven by the post-pandemic recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Households have been partly shielded from the most recent rise in prices by the government’s energy price guarantee (EPG), which limited annual energy costs to £2,500 for the average household.

Ofgem’s latest cut means its cap will again govern household bills, with the guarantee no longer applying.

The change in the cap will result in a typical reduction of £426 from £2,500 to £2,074 – a fall of about 17%.

The energy price cap sets a limit on the maximum amount suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity.

The headline price cap figure is an average across households rather than an absolute cap on bills, so those that use more will pay more.

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Which? Energy editor Emily Seymour said: “While the new price cap will see typical bills drop by around £500, energy bills will still be almost double the amount they were before the energy crisis began – which will be unaffordable for some households.

“If you are concerned about struggling to pay higher bills, there is help available. Speak to your energy provider about a payment plan you can afford and check to see if you qualify for any government schemes.”

Ms Seymour added: “Fixed deals are starting to return to the market for existing customers of some suppliers. We wouldn’t recommend fixing anything higher than the unit rates in your current deal or for longer than a year.

“If you are offered a deal, then it’s really important to check the tariff’s exit fees in case you want to leave that deal early if the price cap comes down.”

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Energy price cap reduction explained

A spokeswoman for Energy UK, which represents suppliers, said: “The fall in the price cap from July will be welcome news for customers who have had to face record energy bills over the last year amidst a steep rise in the cost of living and for whom the government’s bill support has been crucial in preventing even bigger difficulties.

“However, bills remain much higher than they were 18 months ago and many customers will continue to struggle, especially following the removal of some of that support.

“If – as the current projections indicate – annual bills of £2,000 plus become the new normal, it underlines the importance and urgency of the energy industry, Ofgem, government and consumer groups working together to put in place targeted support for those most in need next winter.”

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Household energy bills are expected to fall again, to below £2,000 a year from October, according to the latest forecasts.

Energy industry consultancy Cornwall Insight said it thinks the price cap on energy bills will fall to £1,978.33 from October from July’s £2,074, but rise again from January to £2,004.40, based on Ofgem’s current measures.

However, the regulator is adjusting its definition of the average household’s consumption from October, down from the current 2,900 kWh a year for electricity to 2,700 kWh, and from 12,000 kWh for gas to 11,500 kWh, to reflect consumers using less energy to cut costs in the face of high prices.

Based on Ofgem’s adjusted definitions of average usage, Cornwall Insight has forecast that the regulator will announce price caps of £1,871 a year from October and £1,900 from January.

Record NHS staff sickness levels in England with mental health biggest issue | UK News

Mental health issues account for almost a quarter of all NHS staff absences in England, with a stark rise in staff taking sick days for anxiety, stress, and burnout since the onset of COVID-19.

The absence rate during 2022 shows the NHS lost some 27 million sick days to absence. This is the equivalent of nearly 75,000 full-time staff and includes some 20,400 nurses and 2,900 doctors.

The figure, analysed by the Nuffield Trust from NHS data for the BBC, is a rise of 29% on 2019 – the last full year before COVID hit.

Mental health issues were the top single issue, with colds, coughs, respiratory problems, and the return of flu, accounting for further big rises.

In total across 2022, some six million working days were lost in total to mental health and wellbeing reasons.

The research also found the level of sickness absence is not equal around the country. By the end of 2022, the reported sickness rate in the North West stood at 7.4%, above the national average for hospital and community services, while London was 5.4%.

True absence levels likely to be higher

The trust’s senior fellow Dr Billy Palmer said: “The health service is grappling with a difficult new normal when it comes to staff sickness leave.”

He said while there has been a lot of focus on recruitment, more needed to be done to improve the working conditions of existing staff.

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“The workforce plan needs to have concrete support to enable employers to improve NHS staff experience if the service is to break this cycle of staff absences, sickness and leaving rates,” he said.

As not every absence would have been recorded, the trust said the figures were likely to be lower than the true numbers.

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The analysis comes days after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hailed his NHS Long Term Workforce Plan which he called the “largest expansion in training and workforce”.

The government is set to publish the long-awaited NHS workforce plan later this week to address the long-term woes in the health service.

Gonorrhoea cases rise by over a fifth on pre-pandemic levels | UK News

The number of gonorrhoea cases in the UK has risen by more than a fifth on pre-pandemic levels. 

Provisional data published shows that diagnoses of the sexually transmitted infection (STI) from January to September 2022 were higher than the same nine-month period in each of the last three years.

In the first nine months of last year, 56,327 gonorrhoea cases were diagnosed – up from 46,541 cases from January to September 2019.

People aged between 15 and 24 years are the most likely to be diagnosed with STIs due to changing sexual partners more often than other age groups.

Though STIs are usually easily treated with antibiotics, some can cause serious health issues including infertility and pelvic inflammatory disease.

The UK’s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has urged people to wear a condom and get tested regularly if having sex with new or casual partners.

Typical symptoms of gonorrhoea include a thick green or yellow discharge from the vagina or penis, pain when urinating, pain and discomfort in the rectum and lower abdominal pain and bleeding between periods in those with a uterus or ovaries.

But often, people infected with gonorrhoea will have no symptoms.

Dr Katy Sinka, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: “Condoms aren’t just about preventing unwanted pregnancy; they are the main defence against STIs.

“If you have had condom-less sex with a new or casual partner, it is even more important to get tested to detect any potential infections early and prevent passing them on to others.

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Dr Claire Dewsnap, president of the British Association for Sexual Health and HIV, said: “The rise in gonorrhoea cases provides an important reminder of the importance of testing for STIs and wearing a condom every time you have sex.

“By getting tested at least once a year, regardless of whether you’re showing symptoms, you can help minimise the risk of catching or passing on STIs when having sex.

“Delaying access to the right care and treatment also risks developing longer-term problems which can be more difficult to address.”

UK car production returns to growth – but still below pre-COVID levels | Business News

UK car production has returned to growth, although it is still well below pre-pandemic levels, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says.

Some 69,524 cars were built in October, up 7.4% on the same month a year ago.

September had seen a fall in numbers, after four consecutive months of growth, illustrating how supply chain problems – particularly global chip shortages – have been affecting UK car manufacturers, the SMMT said.

Chips form a critical part of modern car making, with each vehicle typically having 1,500 to 3,000.

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More than eight out of every 10 cars were made to export, with more than half of those heading for the EU, but also the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Turkey.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “A return to growth for UK car production in October is welcome – though output is still down significantly on pre-COVID levels amid turbulent component supply.

“Getting the sector back on track in 2023 is a priority, given the jobs, exports and economic contribution the automotive industry sustains.

“UK car makers are doing all they can to ramp up production of the latest electrified vehicles, and help deliver net zero, but more favourable conditions for investment are needed and needed urgently – especially in affordable and sustainable energy and availability of talent – as part of a supportive framework for automotive manufacturing.”

UK production of battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and hybrid (HEV) vehicles also rose, with combined volumes up 20.3% to 24,115 units.

In the year to date, UK car factories have produced a record 61,339 BEVs – up 16.2% on the same period in 2021.

Cost of living crisis: Bank of England set to increase interest rates to levels not seen since 2008 | Business News

The Bank of England is expected to unveil the biggest interest rate rise since the 1980s today.

A hike of 0.75 percentage points is anticipated – pushing the base rate to 3%, levels that have not been seen since 2008.

If confirmed, this could push up mortgage bills for millions of people in the coming months.

Supermarket offers 1p ready meals – cost of living latest

This would also be the eighth time in a row that the Bank of England has hiked interest rates. Less than a year ago, the base rate was just 0.1%.

Earlier this month, the markets had predicted that today’s increase could be one whole percentage point – but sentiment has calmed since the mini-budget was reversed and Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.

The Bank of England is also set to release long-term inflation forecasts, which are expected to show that the cost of living next year will be much higher than its target of 2%.

Official figures released in September showed inflation hit 10.1% – matching a 40-year high seen in July – with much of this increase driven by rising food costs.

Through these rate hikes, the Bank of England is trying to bring core inflation under control, which excludes more volatile elements such as petrol and energy prices.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned they expect the BoE’s forecasts to show “the economic outlook has deteriorated further”, adding: “Conditioned on market pricing, the UK economy will likely fall into a deeper and more prolonged recession.”

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‘Black hole’ in finances explained

Firms face ‘desperately difficult decisions,’ Labour warns

This afternoon, Labour’s shadow chancellor will warn that the latest interest rate rise will have a huge impact on consumers and companies alike.

Speaking at the Anthropy conference in Cornwall, Rachel Reeves will say: “Rising interest rates will mean families with already stretched budgets will be hit by higher mortgage payments. It will mean higher financing costs for businesses.

“For many firms who have had a tough couple of years, this will mean desperately difficult decisions about whether to carry on.

“And it will mean profound implications for growth as demand is sucked out of the economy – and even those firms that are keeping their head above water face difficult decisions about whether to invest or expand.”

Yesterday, a new poll carried about by Ipsos for Sky News revealed that more than a quarter of people have started using their credit cards to buy food – and a fifth have borrowed money to adjust to rising prices this year.

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People putting food bills on credit

US also increases interest rates

The Bank of England’s decision will come a day after America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, also confirmed that it will increase interest rates by 0.75 percentage points.

Wall Street fell sharply when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the US base rate may need to go even higher than previously thought to tackle the worst inflation seen in decades.

He warned: “It’s very premature, in my view, to think about or to be talking about pausing our rate hikes. We have a ways to go.”

Mr Powell also said that the Federal Reserve would rather make a mistake of taking interest rates too high than easing too quickly, amid fears that a premature pullback could cause inflation to remain.