There has been a shock fall in retail sales in the key December shopping period, sharpening the decline seen in recent months, official figures show.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales fell an unexpected 3.2%, despite Christmas and reported discounts offered by major chains and some positive reports by major high street outfits.
Not since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, in January 2021, had retail sales fallen at such a level.
It has been a far worse performance than the 0.5% drop expected by economists and a reversal of the 1.3% growth seen in November when discounts got people spending.
Retail sales figures are important as household consumption is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.
The data can be indicative of overall economic growth.
The UK already had a quarter of economic contraction from July to September last year.
A second three-month period of economic decline would mean the UK is technically in recession.
A country is technically in recession after two-quarters of negative growth.
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Retail sales took an unexpected fall last month, according to official figures suggesting a slump to COVID lockdown levels with only online operators seeing growth.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.3% decline overall in October 2023, following a fall of 1.1% in September.
A rise in volumes of 0.3% had been expected by economists.
Sales fell 1.1% in the three months to October when compared with the previous three months, the ONS added.
Its deputy director for surveys and economic indicators, Heather Bovill, said: “Retail sales fell again in October to their lowest level since February 2021 when widespread lockdown restrictions were in place.
“After rebounding in September, fuel sales dipped with increasing prices discouraging customers, while food sales also dropped as consumers prioritised essential goods.
“It was another poor month for household goods and clothes stores with these retailers reporting that cost-of-living pressures, reduced footfall and poor weather hit them hard.
“However, it was a better month for online retailers, the only main sector to report growth in October.”
Their volumes were 0.8% higher on the previous month, the data showed.
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Oct: ‘Dark clouds’ over high streets as golden quarter begins
Of the rest, the sharpest decline, of 2%, was felt by fuel retailers.
Households still have good reason to be cautious given the squeeze on their finances from energy, food, mortgages and rents.
Consumer spending accounts for 60% of the UK economy and any declines will make worrying reading for those concerned that the UK economy is at risk of recession – that’s two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Zero growth for the third quarter of the year, in an initial reading, remains at risk of being revised down.
But there are economists and industry experts who believe that consumers are not widely in bad shape and many have been saving up to allow for greater spending during the festive season.
Pantheon Macroeconomics said of the data: “The further fall in retail sales in October, which left sales 3.9% below their 2022 average level, likely will be reversed in the coming months, due to robust growth in households’ real disposable incomes.”
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The first test of that theory will be Black Friday, which could deliver a boost to growth prospects in the current fourth quarter.
Deann Evans, managing director for Europe at ecommerce platform Shopify, said: “Retailers can be forgiven for anticipating a difficult holiday shopping season, with the latest ONS figures showing a continued slowdown in British retail sales.
“But our data suggest that many shoppers have used recent months tactically to save in preparation for the holiday season.
“In fact, over half (53%) of UK shoppers have been putting aside more money each month than they have in previous years.”
Senior civil servants “wanted” people to get COVID like chickenpox to build herd immunity, according to messages read out during an inquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic.
Sir Christopher Wormald remains the most senior civil servant in the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) – as he was in early 2020.
Messages he exchanged with Mark Sedwill – then the head of the Civil Service – were shown to the inquiry.
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These were sent on 12 March 2020.
Lord Sedwill said: “I don’t think PM & Co have internalised yet the distinction between minimising mortality and not trying to stop most people getting it.
“Indeed presumably like chickenpox we want people to get it and develop herd immunity before the next wave.
“We just want them not to get it all at once and preferably when it’s warn (sic) and dry etc.”
Sir Christopher responded: “Exactly right. We make the point every meeting, they don’t quite get it.”
A lot of time during the inquiry has been taken up on when the government change from planning to mitigate people getting the virus, to preventing the spread of the virus and locking down.
Image: Messages between Mark Sedwill and Sir Chris Wormald shown to the COVID inquiry
Read more: Hancock wanted to decide ‘who should live and die’ Johnson blames ‘bed blocking’ on need for first lockdown Key WhatsApp messages from the COVID inquiry
On 14 March, the then-health secretary, Matt Hancock, wrote in The Daily Telegraph: “We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy.
“Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.”
On 23 March, Boris Johnson enacted lockdown.
Dominic Cummings, who was a political appointee by Mr Johnson, repeatedly criticised the Civil Service while he gave evidence to the inquiry.
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COVID: No 10 in ‘complete chaos’
On the same day as the civil servants were talking, Mr Cummings complained in a WhatsApp message that Lord Sedwill had been “babbling about chickenpox”, adding “god f****** help us”.
Speaking to the inquiry on Tuesday, Mr Cummings said Lord Sedwill told Mr Johnson: “PM, you should go on TV and should explain that this is like the old days with chickenpox and people are going to have chickenpox parties. And the sooner a lot of people get this and get it over with the better sort of thing.”
In a post on social media, Mr Cummings responded to the messages published today.
He said: “The reason the [Lord Sedwill] suggested to the PM on 12/3 to tell the country to hold chickenpox parties – and me/Ben Warner said ‘you must stop saying this’ – is [Sir Christopher], *in charge of ‘the plan’*, was telling him this was the f****** plan!!!
“Holy s*** this is truly atrocious and explains so much.”
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Sir Christopher, who was pushed by inquiry lawyers to explain the messages, said that it was a reference to herd immunity but argued it was “reflecting the state of the scientific advice at that point”.
He said he had been “very, very loose in my reply” and that he had at the time been following the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage – advice.
Conservative Party staff were filmed celebrating at their London headquarters during the height of the COVID lockdown.
New footage, obtained by The Mirror, shows the workers at a Christmas party dancing, drinking and joking about COVID restrictions while lockdown rules were in place in December 2020.
Two of those at the party were named in Boris Johnson‘s resignation honours list.
One couple can be seen holding hands and dancing animatedly to Fairytale Of New York while twirling around the room, at one point knocking into a table laden with party food and drink.
During the video, one man can be heard asking: “Are you filming this?” while another responds, “it’s for party, erm, party use.”
Someone else quips, “Instagram live!”
The first person then laughs, and says: “As long as we are not streaming that we’re, like, bending the rules.”
It is understood to have been filmed at a time when many families were unable to see one another over Christmas due to the lockdown tier system, restricting the number of people who were able to mix together indoors.
The Mirror said more than 24 people attended the event, and claim at least nine people can be seen in the video.
Read more: Boris Johnson ‘calling off the dogs’ from attacking privileges committee report Rishi Sunak facing potentially acrimonious vote on Boris Johnson partygate report
The two people at the event recognised in Mr Johnson’s honours list are former London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey (who is understood to have left before the video was taken) – who has been given a peerage – and Ben Mallet, the Tory campaign director for the 2021 London mayoral election, who can be seen in the video wearing brightly coloured braces.
The video is likely to turn the spotlight back onto former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, just days after the privileges committee found he had repeatedly misled MPs with denials over partygate.
The Mirror previously released a photo from the party, which was subsequently investigated by police. No further action was taken at the time due to lack of evidence.
Responding to the video, a Conservative Party spokesperson said: “Senior CCHQ staff became aware of an unauthorised social gathering in the basement of Matthew Parker Street organised by the Bailey campaign on the evening of 14 December 2020.
“Formal disciplinary action was taken against the four CCHQ staff who were seconded to the Bailey campaign.”
Angela Rayner, Labour deputy leader, said the video showed attendees “openly mocked the rules,” adding that the recent honours announcement was a “sickening insult”.
She said: “Revellers at this lockdown Tory booze up openly mocked the rules the British people followed. The Tories think it’s one rule for them and one rule for everyone else.”
“Instead of forcing them to face the consequences, Rishi Sunak has caved into Boris Johnsons’ demands and chosen to reward them with honours. It’s a sickening insult.”
“This Prime Minister is failing to deliver the integrity he promised and showing he’s too weak to turn the page on thirteen years of Tory scandal.”
Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “Conservative MPs and ministers should be sick to their stomachs seeing this new Partygate footage.
“While families grieved and NHS staff worked on the front line, Conservative Campaign Headquarters partied.
“What’s worse is the current Prime Minister granted Boris Johnson’s request to give some of these people honours.
“There are thousands of families out there who deserve an apology for this scandal – Rishi Sunak should give them one immediately.”
Boris Johnson has been referred to the police by the Cabinet Office over new claims he broke COVID lockdown rules.
The former prime minister’s ministerial diary has revealed visits by friends to Chequers during the pandemic.
The trips to the country residence were highlighted during preparations for a public inquiry into COVID.
Politics Live: Boris Johnson’s diary shows friends visiting him at Chequers during lockdown
The Cabinet Office has passed concerns to the Metropolitan Police and Thames Valley Police.
The privileges committee, which is investigating claims Mr Johnson misled parliament over partygate, has also been informed, according to The Times which first reported on the story.
The news has sparked calls for Mr Johnson to step down as an MP.
But sources close to him called the referral “clearly politically motivated” and claimed the Cabinet Office did not give him any notice “so he could put forward the facts before the report was made”.
Mr Johnson has been advised by lawyers that the events were lawful.
A spokesperson for Mr Johnson said: “Some abbreviated entries in Mr Johnson’s official diary were queried by Cabinet Office during preparation for the COVID Inquiry.
“Following an examination of the entries, Mr Johnson’s lawyers wrote to the Cabinet Office and privileges committee explaining that the events were lawful and were not breaches of any COVID regulations.”
Police are currently “assessing” concerns, but a formal investigation has not yet been launched.
A statement from the Metropolitan Police said the details were passed to them on 19 May and they relate “to potential breaches of the Health Protection Regulations between June 2020 and May 2021 at Downing Street”.
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‘Hand on heart I did not lie’
A Cabinet Office spokesperson said: “Information came to light during the process of preparing evidence for submission to the COVID Inquiry.
“It was identified as part of the normal disclosure review of potentially relevant documents being undertaken by the legal team for inquiry witnesses.
“In line with obligations in the Civil Service Code, this material has been passed to the relevant authorities and it is now a matter for them.”
Johnson ‘should consider his position as MP’
The Liberal Democrats have called for Mr Johnson to consider his position as an MP.
Deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “It’s outrageous that rumours of alleged rule breaking by Boris Johnson are still being drip-fed to the public.
“The fact that it’s one rule for them and one rule for the rest of us still triggers a raw sense of injustice in millions of people.
“Sunak must make sure that not a single penny more of taxpayer money is spent on Johnson’s legal fund; and Johnson should finally do one decent thing and consider his position as an MP.”
What were the lockdown rules at the time?
June 2020 – after the initial “stay at home” order, rules are relaxed to allow a maximum of six people to meet outdoors for non-work purposes.
July 2020 – two households of any size are allowed to meet in indoor or outdoor settings.
August 2020 – people are encouraged to go out again with the introduction of the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme
September 2020 – rules begin to be tightened again with the “rule of six” banning any social gathering of more than six people.
November 2020 – Second national lockdown – people can leave home to meet only one person outside their support bubble.
Restrictions were eased through December and over Christmas.
January 2021 – Third national lockdown for England – people were again told to stay at home and and not meet anyone outside their support bubble, with limited exceptions for religious gatherings like weddings.
March 2021 – Six people or two households, regardless of size, allowed to mingle outdoors again.
May 2021 – Restrictions further lifted with 30 people permitted to mix outdoors, the rule of six or two household rule applied indoors.
Lindsay Jackson, spokeswoman for the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice group, branded Mr Johnson “totally unfit for any form of public service” and suggested he “quietly step back from public life”.
“His legacy is one of lying, complete contempt for the ordinary people he was supposed to protect, and above all presiding over the deaths of nearly 200,000 people,” she said.
“If he had any respect he’d quietly step back from public life and reflect on the pain and suffering he has inflicted on so many.”
However Ben Bradley, the Tory MP for Mansfield, said the world “has moved on” from partygate.
He told Sky News: “My sense of all of this is that, frankly, the former prime minister has been through that, we’ve investigated that, the country’s dealt with that – I think the world’s moved on.”
The partygate scandal overshadowed the end of Boris Johnson’s premiership and played a major role in his downfall last year.
Image: The partygate scandal overshadowed the end of Boris Johnson’s premiership
Details of drunkenness, fighting and late-night parties at the heart of government while the nation lived under lockdown restrictions were laid bare in a damning report by Sue Gray – who said “senior leadership” must take responsibility for a culture of rule breaking.
Its publication came after the Met Police concluded its investigation into lockdown-breaking events in Downing Street and Whitehall, which resulted in 126 fines being issued for 83 people.
Mr Johnson received one of those fines, for attending his own birthday party in the cabinet room in Downing Street in June 2020.
He narrowly survived a confidence vote in June 2022 but was brought down a month later over his handling of the Chris Pincher affair.
The privileges committee is now investigating whether Mr Johnson knowingly misled parliament with his repeated insistence that rules were followed at all times.
He could be suspended from the Commons and face a by-election if they find he purposefully misled the House.
Matt Hancock has denounced what he said was a “massive betrayal and breach of trust” following the leaking of lockdown Whatsapp messages.
The exchanges were published in The Daily Telegraph after he shared them with journalist Isabel Oakeshott, who worked with the former health secretary on his Pandemic Diaries book.
In a lengthy statement, Mr Hancock denied sending a “menacing message” to Ms Oakeshott – a claim she made last night as she defended breaking a Non Disclosure Agreement (NDA) to leak the messages.
The MP said: “I am hugely disappointed and sad at the massive betrayal and breach of trust by Isabel Oakeshott. I am also sorry for the impact on the very many people – political colleagues, civil servants and friends – who worked hard with me to get through the pandemic and save lives.
“There is absolutely no public interest case for this huge breach. All the materials for the book have already been made available to the Inquiry, which is the right, and only, place for everything to be considered properly and the right lessons to be learned. As we have seen, releasing them in this way gives a partial, biased account to suit an anti-lockdown agenda.”
Last night, Ms Oakeshott insisted she gave messages to the Telegraph because of the “overwhelming” public interest and it was not about attacking the former health secretary.
She also claimed she received a “menacing message” from Mr Hancock when he found out about what she had done – but Mr Hancock said “this is wrong”.
He said: “Last night, I was accused of sending menacing messages to Isabel. This is also wrong. When I heard confused rumours of a publication late on Tuesday night, I called and messaged Isabel to ask her if she had ‘any clues’ about it, and got no response. When I then saw what she’d done, I messaged to say it was ‘a big mistake’. Nothing more.”
He said he would not be commenting further on any stories “or false allegations that Isabel will make”.
“I will respond to the substance in the appropriate place, at the inquiry, so that we can properly learn all the lessons based on a full and objective understanding of what happened in the pandemic, and why,” he said.
The first story from the tranche of messages broke last night in the Telegraph, alleging the former health secretary had rejected testing advice on care homes and expressed concern it could get in the way of meeting his targets.
The MP strongly denied the “distorted account”, with a spokesman alleging the conversations had been “spun to fit an anti-lockdown agenda”.
Speaking to TalkTV in her first interview since the article was published, Ms Oakeshott – who received the messages from Mr Hancock while working on his memoir with him – said she had signed an NDA and chose to break it “in the public interest” as it could be “a decade” before the official inquiry into COVID reports back.
She said: “The public interest is overwhelming. Whenever you break a big story which is in the national interest… it can be a rocky road, it can be a bumpy ride.
“I know I am going to get a few knocks over this [but] I am prepared to do this because I think the national interest is so utterly compelling.”
The journalist added: “This for me is not a personal thing about Matt Hancock.”
It’s the equivalent of lockdown for anything with feathers.
As of Monday 7 November, all kept birds – whether they are large free-range flocks or hobby racing pigeons – will have to be kept indoors or in covered outdoor cages.
Biosecurity measures like disinfecting vehicles, equipment and boots are required as well as bans on the movement of live birds.
Extreme measures for an extreme situation.
Europe is in the grips of a bird flu epidemic caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus.
It is highly infectious and causes rapid illness and death in commercial flocks of chickens ducks, turkeys and geese.
England has had occasional outbreaks of H5N1 since the virus first began spreading from China where it originated in 1996.
The virus also caused sporadic outbreaks in wild birds, particularly wildfowl like ducks geese and swans. Culling of infected flocks and curbs on the movement of birds kept outbreaks limited in scope.
But this year it has been different.
H5N1 spent the summer causing continued outbreaks in wild birds with mass die-offs in seabirds and migratory wildfowl across much of the northern hemisphere.
It is believed the hundreds of outbreaks on poultry farms this year have been linked to spread from wild birds into farms.
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What’s changed?
Researchers studying the genetics of the virus believe it has adapted in some way, allowing it to be as well-suited to infecting wild birds as it is farmed poultry.
If that situation continues, the concern is bird flu becomes endemic in Europe, if it isn’t already. As well as ongoing outbreaks on farms, migratory birds arriving in the UK this autumn are dying in unprecedented numbers infected with H5N1.
A current frustration for conservationists is the impression that wild birds are being “blamed” for the current situation.
However there is good evidence crowded, intensively farmed poultry flocks gave bird flu the opportunity to evolve into highly infectious strains that are now decimating wildlife.
Whichever is the case, something will have to be done to break the vicious cycle of infection between wild birds and domestic ones.
The best tool would be bird flu jabs for farmed poultry. Several have been trialled on birds, and more waiting to be tested.
However, current trade rules prohibit the use of bird flu vaccines. The concern being they could allow certain exporters to be more lax in biosecurity measures leading to the spread of other diseases.
