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Public investment ‘badly needed’ to prevent UK’s national debt rising to risky levels, IMF warns | Business News

Public investment in new technologies and the energy transition is “badly needed” to drive growth in the UK and prevent the national debt rising to risky levels, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

Speaking as Rachel Reeves travelled to Washington to attend her first IMF annual meeting as chancellor, the body identified the UK as an advanced economy at risk of allowing borrowing to rise well in excess of pre-COVID levels.

The IMF’s annual fiscal monitor report, which assesses tax and spending plans across global economies, projects that UK net debt will increase from 91.6% of GDP this year to 96.4% by 2029.

Vitor Gaspar, director of fiscal affairs at the IMF, warned that the UK’s national debt level is “high, rising and risky”, but told Sky News that a combination of relatively high interest rates and low growth made public investment a priority.

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“If I were to give you my concern about the UK… I would put it as follows. The UK is living with interest rates close to US interest rates, but with growth rates that are not close to US levels.

“That leads to a theme that has been amply debated in the UK. Public investment as a percentage of GDP has been trending down and, given the challenges associated with the energy transition, new technologies, technological innovation and much else, public investment is badly needed.”

He warned that the UK’s challenge was not unique in a world where global debt has reached $100trn and rising.

“In most countries, fiscal plans that governments have put in place are insufficient to deliver stable or declining public debt ratios with a high degree of confidence. Additional efforts are necessary. Delaying adjustment is costly and risky. Kicking the can down the road won’t do. The time to act is now.”

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In comments likely to be welcomed by Ms Reeves, who is expected to adjust the government’s debt rules to allow more borrowing in her first budget next week, Mr Gaspar said she should not rule out borrowing to invest.

“Public investment should be protected in the framework of a set of rules and budgetary procedures that foster sound macroeconomic performance. The fact that that debate is very much at the centre of the debate in the UK right now is very much welcome.”

Ms Reeves is expected to make public investment a core plank of a budget in which she will seek to raise close to £40bn via tax increases and spending cuts, while also trying to kick-start growth.

Total public and private investment levels in the UK are the lowest in the G7 and have been for 24 of the last 30 years, according to thinktank the IPPR.

She will gather with fellow finance ministers from more than 190 countries in Washington on Thursday, a gathering also attended by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

‘I’m always going to be vulnerable’: Why are suicide rates among women rising? | UK News

Emma Mills-Sheffield knows all too well the grief that suicide brings. Her sister Lou took her own life. And so too did their maternal grandmother. Emma’s father tried too.

“The cycle of grief was immense and deep,” she explains as we sit and talk in her Hove home.

“It’s not straightforward when someone takes their own life; the anger, the disbelief, the constant searching. There must have been evidence. There must have been something we could have done. There must have been a note. There must have been something.

“And then the anger around, weirdly, other people. People don’t know what to say or do.”

After years of decline, suicide rates are rising – especially among women.

In 2023 in England and Wales, they reached levels not seen since 1999. Some 6,069 suicides were registered in the two nations in 2023, up from 5,642 in 2022.

Suicide data is complex and can be quite hard to interpret.

The official figures have been disputed, with some experts saying they have been oversimplified. This is partly because suicides can take a while to be registered and show up in the official data.

But what can’t be disputed is that far too many people are taking their own lives.

This is a public health crisis that needs urgent intervention, according to suicide prevention charities, which are seeing a surge in the number of women seeking help.

Read more:
Parents of students who died by suicide call for legal duty of care to be imposed on universities

‘Women are experiencing high levels of depression and anxiety’

Rachael Swann, CEO of Grassroots Suicide Prevention, a charity that helps people in crisis, says 70% of users of their Stay Alive mobile app, which connects people to support, are now women.

The rise in women taking their own lives is attributed to many factors, including menopause and perinatal depression, she says.

Rachel Swann, CEO of Grassroots Suicide Prevention
Image:
Rachael Swann, CEO of Grassroots Suicide Prevention

“As a midlife mum myself, I could really see the pressures,” she says.

“Women are really experiencing high levels of depression and anxiety, and there’s been a high level of domestic abuse following the pandemic.

“And then we’ve got that middle age group of 45 to 64-year-olds, who are the sandwich generation. So they might be juggling caring responsibilities, working and childcare. I’m in that space and there really is very little time and space for self-care.”

More attempts ‘than I have been able to count’, survivor says

Olivia-Louise Hamilton has been trying to take her own life since she was 12 years old.

She had a difficult childhood and battled for years with her poor mental health. She is 29 now and the dark winter months are challenging.

Olivia-Louise Hamilton
Image:
Olivia-Louise Hamilton

“There are more times than I have been able to count,” she explains about her attempts to take her own life.

“And they were quite different in the lead-up to it. Some of them were very, very impulsive, maybe in response to a certain trigger or because I’ve been sort of misusing alcohol, whereas others were a lot more premeditated, there was a lot more planning and that longer-term thought that went into them.”

‘I’m always going to be vulnerable’

Ms Hamilton is in a much better place now, but that does not mean her struggle is over. It is always there.

“I think I’d be lying if I said it isn’t something that’s on my mind. I think that I’m always going to be vulnerable to those sorts of thoughts just because of my history,” she says.

“But equally, the skills and the tools that I’ve learned over the years, I think really help me move forward with the hope that things might be different.

“I always think I’m hopeful. I’m hopeful enough that I won’t have a crisis. But I guess I’m not stupid enough to think that that won’t ever happen.”

Labour has promised to tackle suicide

The Labour government has promised to tackle suicide with the recruitment of over 8,000 new mental health staff specially trained to support people at risk of suicide.

In its 2024 manifesto, it said it would “deliver a renewed drive to tackle the biggest killers”, including suicide.

Ms Hamilton can tell when things are getting too much and how to reach for help. But tragically, it’s not the same for thousands of other women.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

Food prices still rising faster than wages although overall rate of retail inflation falls | UK News

Food prices are still rising faster than wages, new data has shown.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported overall food inflation rose 11.5% in August, down from 13.4% in July.

But annual growth in average total pay only grew by 8.2% from April to June, according to the latest data available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Fresh food inflation fell to 11.6% in August, down from 14.3% in July.

Inflation for ambient foods – items stored at room temperature – fell from 12.3% in July to 11.3% in August.

Meanwhile the BRC said price rises in shops have slowed to their lowest rates in October last year but keep going up significantly.

Prices rose 6.9% in the year to August, down from 8.4% in July.

While retail inflation has dropped it does not mean items are getting cheaper, just that prices increased more slowly between September 2022 and August 2023 than they did between August 2022 and July 2023.

The BRC showed the main reason retail inflation dropped was because fresh food prices rose less rapidly.

Inflation for non-food items was unchanged at 4.7%, the BRC said.

Read more:
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Millions risk getting ill because they are ‘too scared to put heating on’ when it’s cold
Tory ‘chaos and incompetence’ have left families worse off, says Labour

‘Better news for consumers’

“Better news for consumers as shop price inflation in August eased to its lowest level since October 2022,” the consortium’s chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

“This was driven by falling food inflation, particularly for products such as meat, potatoes and some cooking oils.

“These figures would have been lower still had the government not increased alcohol duties earlier this month.”

She said key components of toiletries and cosmetics had become cheaper which helped ease price rises in these categories.

Inflation for clothing and footwear increases

But inflation for clothing and footwear increased as the summer sales came to a close.

“While inflation is on course to continue to fall thanks to retailers’ efforts, there are supply chain risks for retailers to navigate,” Ms Dickinson added.

“Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and its targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities, as well as poor harvests across Europe and beyond, could serve as potential roadblocks to lower inflation.

“A potential £400m hike to business rates bills from next April would certainly jeopardise efforts to tackle inflation unless the chancellor intervenes.”

Meet the Redditch residents turning to food banks to survive amid rising interest rates | UK News

At Batchley Support Group in Redditch, I meet Tony.

He’s 59 and one of a higher-than-average number of people in the town who have a mortgage.

That’s despite the area having the fifth-lowest average salaries in England and Wales.

It means he, like others, may be disproportionately affected by interest rate rises.

Tony has struggled to make payments on his tracker mortgage and the recent interest rate rises have pushed him over the edge
Image:
Tony has struggled to make payments on his tracker mortgage

It turns out, for Tony, it’s much more than that.

He’s just been told his flat may be repossessed.

Tony’s circumstances are complicated. He bought the property 19 years ago when he had a job as a lorry driver.

He subsequently became disabled, suffering brain damage, after a street attack.

In recent years his disability benefit changed to a “limited capacity” one.

It has meant he has struggled to make payments on his tracker mortgage and the recent interest rate rises have pushed him over the edge.

Read more:
Military personnel using food banks down to ‘personal decisions around budgeting’
Food banks distribute record emergency food parcels

Intimidating and impossible figures

He takes us into his top-floor flat and shows us his papers in a darkened living room.

One letter clearly states his interest rate is rising by another 0.5% from 1 August and he may be losing his home.

The letter states how he is now £7,000 in arrears with £29,000 left to pay on his mortgage.

These are intimidating and impossible figures for Tony.

He doesn’t use heating and limited electricity.

He can’t afford to buy a single piece of food.

He’s been making £150 payments every month but it’s not even half of what he needs to.

‘I’d be dead’ without food bank

“I’ve been here for 20 years. It is my home,” he tells me. “You know, I’m disabled, I need heat and everything else. Where am I going to go? I have got nowhere, no house to go. That’s it.”

I ask him if he didn’t have the nearby food bank, what he would do?

He replies simply: “I’d be knackered, I’d be dead.”

Single mother Sarah is holding down three jobs, but it still is not enough to help feed her and her family
Image:
Single mother Sarah is holding down three jobs but is still unable to feed her family

Single mother reliant on food bank

At the Batchley Support Group Centre – a hub in the middle of this community which offers advice and help for all issues – I also meet single mother Sarah.

She’s holding down three jobs, including an NHS technician role, an online teaching job and acting.

It’s still not enough to help feed her and her family.

She lives with her 13-year-old boy, and her 19-year-old son when he’s back from university.

She’s lucky her landlord hasn’t put her rent up, but she describes how everything else has increased.

“You can’t change the rent, you can’t change your gas, your electric, your water, your TV licence….

“So you can only change the way that you spend the money you have.”

She can pick up as much food as she needs from the food bank here for just £1.

But she’s also worried about interest rates on her credit card.

She describes being reliant on it to pay for fuel for her car to get to work.

‘More working people are struggling’

Mark Barron runs the Support Group, and has had to order an extra load of food each week recently to cope with demand.

He says the service is also seeing a rise in employed people seeking help: “We see more working people who are struggling.

“And that tells us it’s really about disposable income, what’s left once you pay the bills, if anything, what’s left to live on? And that’s, that’s a real leveller for people.”

Redditch isn’t unique in this.

Disposable incomes are being stretched if not annihilated across the country.

Interest rate rises mean that standards of living, in general, are being swept away.

And with them, people like Tony, who are becoming collateral damage.

Hate crime against people with disfigurements rising, and this campaigner says the police must do more | UK News

A disability campaigner has told police forces they should “do more” to combat a rise in hate crimes targeting people with disfigurements.

It comes after “sobering” research shows 33% of people with visible differences or disfigurements said they had experienced a hate crime – compared with 28% in 2019.

The Changing Faces survey also suggests 49% have endured hostile behaviour such as staring, comments and intimidation – up from 34% in 2019 and 43% in 2021.

Meanwhile, 23% said they did not report their hate crime for fears they would not be taken seriously, while 12% believed that hate crimes are “just part of life with a visible difference”.

Changing Faces chief Heather Blake said the survey has highlighted the “shocking prejudice” faced by people with visible differences.

Actor, presenter and campaigner Adam Pearson has urged police forces to “do more”, saying: “Hate crimes, whoever they target, are despicable and not to be tolerated.

“Seeing the steady increases in those with a visible difference or disfigurement experiencing hate crimes is frightening. We can’t wait for a tragedy to happen before action is taken.

“Police forces across the UK need to do more to encourage people with visible differences to report what’s happening to them and reassure them that they will be taken seriously.”

Embargoed to 0001 Monday April 17 Undated handout photo issued by Changing Faces of Isobel Cameron who was born with a cleft lip and palate, said people threw rocks at her home when she was younger and she remains anxious to go outside. The number of people with visible differences or disfigurements who say they were the victim of a hate crime has increased since 2019, according to "sobering" new research released this week. Issue date: Monday April 17, 2023.
Image:
Isobel Cameron

Some respondents shared other experiences, which included threats of violence in the street and death threats online.

Isobel Cameron, who was born with a cleft lip and palate, said she had rocks thrown at her home when she was younger, and still finds it difficult to leave her house.

She said: “This abuse made it difficult for me to go out in public. I was very aware of the stares I received from people, and I was always waiting to see if they would go further.

“Sometimes they did. At 15 years old, a grown woman was walking in front of me and my friend, and she kept turning around to look at me. At first my friend didn’t seem to notice, but then the woman started to shout abuse at me, calling me ‘fish face’.”

Ms Blake added: “We know that behind each of these statistics is a person who is directly impacted by the shocking prejudice, and in some instances criminal actions, of others.

“No one should be a target for abuse or discrimination because of how they look.

“First and foremost, we want anyone with a visible difference or disfigurement to know that we are here for them. This isn’t something you should just have to put up with. Let’s call it what it is, it’s hate, and it’s wrong.”

Grand National: Animal Rising protesters say they’ll try to stop race from going ahead | UK News

An animal rights group says it will attempt to stop the Grand National from going ahead this afternoon.

Animal Rising activists are planning to scale fences and storm the track – and it’s claimed up to 300 protesters will attend.

Others will block traffic by performing a slow march along the main access route outside Aintree Racecourse.

Spokesperson Nathan McGovern said: “Animal Rising intends to make sure the Grand National doesn’t even begin.

“We know that if the race begins, then horses will likely die as Eclair Surf and Discorama did last year. People will attempt to put their bodies between horses and harm by calling the entire race off.”

According to Mr McGovern, a horse dies every two to three days in UK racing – “and we want to see an end to that”.

He went on to stress that activists plan to act before the race starts, and they would not enter the track if horses and jockeys are riding.

Merseyside Police said they have a “robust policing plan in place” and are working with Aintree’s owners The Jockey Club in preparation for any incidents.

One horse has already died at the Grand National Festival – Envoye Special – after it fell in the Foxhunters’ Chase just after 4pm on Thursday.

It is the 60th horse to have died at Aintree in the past 23 years.

Animal Rising was formerly known as Animal Rebellion, but changed its name earlier this week in order to move away from the umbrella of Extinction Rebellion.

It plans to target the Grand National were made public when an undercover reporter attended a meeting earlier this month.

According to The Mail on Sunday, activists are intending to use ladders and bolt cutters to get through the perimeter fencing at Aintree.

Mr McGovern added: “It’s a spotlight that we really need to be using to push a national conversation about our broken relationship, not only with horses but with all the animals that we use, whether that’s for food, fun, entertainment and dog and horse racing.

“This is very much about a bigger picture of recognising that, in a nation of animal lovers, we’re not really living up to those values with our actions.”

A Merseyside Police spokesperson said: “We respect the right to peaceful protest and expression of views, but public order or criminal offences will not be tolerated and will be dealt with robustly.”

Meanwhile, an Aintree Racecourse representative urged Animal Rising to “reflect on whether their proposed actions are legitimate and responsible”.

They added: “Their actions could endanger the horses they purport to protect, as well as jockeys, officials and themselves.”