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House prices: Mini-budget ‘turmoil’ behind first monthly fall for 15 months | Business News

“Turmoil” caused by the government’s mini-budget in September has prompted the first fall in house prices for 15 months, according to a closely-watched report

Nationwide, the UK’s largest mortgage lender, reported a 0.9% dip to £268,282 in October on the previous month’s average figure.

The building society predicted that prices would continue to ease in the months ahead as interest rates continue to rise due to Bank of England action to combat inflation.

The price fall marked the first month-on-month decline since July 2021 and meant that growth was up by 7.2% on an annual basis compared to September’s figure of 9.5%.

The data was worse than analysts had expected.

Borrowing costs soared and many mortgage lenders, including Nationwide, suspended loans temporarily in the wake of the mini-budget of 23 September.

That was because the £45bn programme of unfunded tax cuts to spark growth in the economy backfired on financial markets, which determined that the government, then led by Liz Truss, had lost economic credibility.

Read more:
UK has lost credibility among investors and the ‘bond vigilantes’ serve as a warning
What was in the mini-budget and what has been scrapped?

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, said: “The market has undoubtedly been impacted by the turmoil following the mini-budget, which led to a sharp rise in market interest rates.

“Higher borrowing costs have added to stretched housing affordability at a time when household finances are already under pressure from high inflation.”

He added: “Longer term borrowing costs have fallen back in recent weeks and may moderate further if investor sentiment continues to recover.

“Given the weak growth outlook, labour market conditions are likely to soften, but they are starting from a robust position, with unemployment at near 50-year lows.

“Moreover, household balance sheets appear in relatively good shape with significant protection from higher borrowing costs, at least for a period, with over 85% of mortgage balances on fixed interest rates.

“Stretched housing affordability is also a reflection of underlying supply constraints, which should provide some support for prices.”

£17,000 severance for 36 hours in the job: How much year of political turmoil will cost taxpayers | Politics News

Britain’s year of political turmoil could cost the taxpayer up to £726,000 in severance payments to former ministers and whips, Sky News analysis of House of Commons library data has found.

Since the beginning of the year, 79 government ministers and whips have either been sacked or have resigned.

And 71 of them are likely to be eligible for payments averaging more than £10,000 – no matter how long they were in the job.

To receive the lump sum, they cannot return to government within three weeks of leaving their post.

This means anyone shuffled out by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday will be eligible for a payment as long as they do not return to a paid government role by 15 November.

Our calculations are based on what they will be eligible to receive if they remain on the backbenches for that period.

Newly installed Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary Brandon Lewis leaving Downing Street, London, after meeting the new Prime Minister Liz Truss. Picture date: Tuesday September 6, 2022.

Brandon Lewis: £34,000

Mr Lewis, who most recently served as justice secretary under Liz Truss, is eligible for the largest sum, with two payments totalling nearly £34,000 – more than the £31,676 that nurses earn on average in a year.

He is eligible for one payment due to his resignation as Northern Ireland secretary in July – in protest at Boris Johnson’s refusal to stand down – and for a second payment due to the loss of his position as justice secretary during Mr Sunak’s reshuffle.

In a year of political chaos, 2022 has seen three prime ministers and numerous reshuffles. The result has been a record level of turnover on the government benches, resulting in a large number of people eligible for severance payments.

The number of cabinet appointments this year is already more than twice as high as in any year since 1979, according to the Institute for Government.

In July, Boris Johnson announced he would stand down as PM after dozens of MPs resigned in protest at his handling of sexual assault allegations against former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and military representative to NATO Ben Bathurst leave NATO Headquarters following a summit on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Brussels, Belgium March 24, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/Pool

Liz Truss: £385 per day

Ms Truss consigned a further 30 ministers and whips to the backbenches in her first three days as PM.

Both Mr Johnson and Ms Truss are eligible for the most generous individual payments, at £18,860 each.

For Ms Truss, who served just seven weeks in the top job, that represents £385 per day in office. Her total potential sum is more than the £10,120 which she would have earned in the role from her salary, if paid on a pro-rata basis.

Kwasi Kwarteng: £444 per day

Mr Kwarteng, who was forced to resign as chancellor over the mini-budget, is eligible for nearly £17,000.

That’s equivalent to £444 for each day he was in the job, and is more than twice the amount he would have earned from his official salary as chancellor if paid pro-rata (£7,023).

Suella Braverman, who resigned as home secretary on 19 October, will not be eligible for a payment as she returned to the frontbench just six days later – within the three-week cut-off window.

Overall, 32 MPs could claim more in severance payments than they earned in the job.

Minister of State for Northern Ireland Conor Burns during a press conference following a British-Irish Council (BIC) summit meeting at the St Pierre Park Hotel in Guernsey. Picture date: Friday July 8, 2022.

Conor Burns: £7,290

Former trade minister Conor Burns is set to receive a severance payment of £7,290 – three times his pro-rata salary of £2,602.

He was fired in October after just one month in the role after losing the whip for an allegation of “serious misconduct” at the Conservative Party conference.

Anyone leaving a paid position in government can claim – regardless of whether they willingly resigned, were fired or stepped down in disgrace.

The only conditions are that they don’t return to a job within three weeks, are under the age of 65 and did not die in office.

Chris Pincher: £8,000

Mr Pincher, who resigned as a government whip in July following allegations of sexual assault, was eligible for a payment of nearly £8,000.

Sky News has contacted those eligible for payments, but many of them have yet to respond.

British Culture Secretary Michelle Donelan walks through conference hall during Britain's Conservative Party's annual conference in Birmingham, Britain, October 3, 2022. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

Some donate severance payments to charity

Michelle Donelan has said she will donate her payment to a local charity.

She qualified for a payment of nearly £17,000 after serving as education secretary for less than 36 hours under Boris Johnson.

The office of Dominic Raab, who was reappointed as justice secretary on Tuesday, told Sky News he is planning to return part of his £16,876 payout.

Grant Shapps spent just 43 days out of ministerial office after resigning as transport secretary under Mr Johnson, but could claim nearly £17,000 in severance for his trouble. His office said he will be donating around half of his payment to an HMRC-recognised charitable account he uses.

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Reshuffle: How the day unfolded

Severance pay to Labour in 2010: £1m

When responding to an Urgent Question about severance payments in July, then Cabinet Office minister Harriet Wheeler said: “The severance pay for ministers is established in legislation that was passed by Parliament in 1991 and that has been used by successive administrations over several decades.

Ms Wheeler added: “Reshuffles are a fundamental part of the operation of government and, by their nature, routinely remove ministers from office, and that, unlike in other employment contexts, there are no periods of notice, no consultations and no redundancy arrangements.”

She pointed out severance payments had been made and accepted during the Blair and Brown years in office, adding: “To ensure transparency, severance payments are published in the annual reports and accounts of government departments.

“As an example of the previous operation of this provision, the data published in 2010 indicated severance payments made to Labour ministers in that year amounted to £1m.”

Liz Truss to face wretched week at Tory Party conference after mini-budget turmoil | Politics News

Liz Truss is set to face a wretched week at the Tory Party conference after the disastrous reaction to Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget.

The prime minister arrived in Birmingham on Saturday looking buoyant just hours before yet another injurious poll was released.

Hopes to be greeted by an adoring host of members have likely been dashed as some Tory MPs have questioned whether she will still be PM by the end of the year.

Nearly two dozen senior Conservative MPs have told Sky News they will not be attending after a tumultuous week that saw the pound hit a record low against the dollar and the Bank of England stepping in to prevent a pension funds collapse.

Ms Truss and her chancellor have doubled down in defending the £45bn of unfunded tax cuts that caused the economic turmoil, insisting it is necessary for growth.

The PM on Saturday said “rough decisions” were needed to boost growth and told the Sunday Telegraph she wants to “bring people with me on this journey”, insisting the “status quo isn’t an option”.

There are concerns the situation could get worse if the Bank of England is forced to hike interest rates to shore up the currency and keep inflation down.

A series of polls taken this week have shown a massive drop in popularity for the Tories and a record high for Labour following the mini-budget.

The latest poll from Opinium showed 55% of voters disapprove of both Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng while Labour enjoyed a 19-point boost.

And 75% of all voters think they have lost control of the economy. When it comes to Tory voters, 71% think they do not have the economy under control versus just 24% who believe they do.

Many of Ms Truss’ own MPs have been talking out against her economic plan and Tory grandee Michael Gove, who backed Rishi Sunak, is expected to demand the party changes course during eight official appearances at the conference.

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Truss arrives at Tory conference

Senior backbenchers told The Independent the PM has a matter of days to row back on tax and welfare cuts or a rebellion could see her removed from Downing Street by Christmas.

There are reports of letters going in to the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee from MPs calling for a vote of no confidence.

Under current rules she is safe from a leadership challenge for a year after her election but the 1922 executive could change the rules if demand from Tory MPs is overwhelming.

Read more:

Liz Truss and Tories’ approval ratings take another hit in fresh poll
Devolved nations demand urgent meeting with chancellor

News on Saturday that Mr Kwarteng held a champagne reception with hedge fund managers just hours after the mini-budget was met with incredulity.

A source close to the chancellor denied he had provided guests with privileged information and said: “The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.”

Truss needs to reset if she is to survive

Sam Coates

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Liz Truss starts her first Conservative Party conference less than a month – 25 days – since becoming leader, all the more notable given 11 of those days were spent in official mourning for the death of the Queen.

Also notable in that time is that the government spent upwards of £160 billion, Sterling collapsed to the lowest level since 1985, UK is now at threat of downgrade by credit rating agencies, swathes of cheaper mortgages have disappeared from the market, the Bank of England has done an emergency intervention to save pension funds and the Tories have recorded their worst opinion poll rating for YouGov since the company was founded in the late 90s.

Everybody – Tory MPs, institutions, voters looking at the economic turmoil to come – is anxious.

Ms Truss’s most important job is to show the county and her party whose side she is on.

Which is why the story tonight from the Sunday Times about her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is so damaging.

On the day of the mini-budget, where he cut taxes for the richest, he went to a hedge fund party hosted by Andrew Law, Tory donor. 30 donors and financiers were there as he went round the top.

I’ve spoken to someone who has been at events such as these recently. They are amazed at just how casual Kwarteng is about spraying bold, potentially market moving views around such events, on topics such as the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.

Some in the City worry such talk undermines the credibility of the UK’s independent financial institutions, after the watchdog OBR and Treasury expertise already came in the firing line. Careless talk costs credibility.

Another difficult moment, one of just many.

Many Tories think Liz Truss now needs to reset with her party this week to survive.

‘The worst is yet to come’

Opposition parties used the opening of the Conservative conference to hit out at the Tories, with the SNP saying the worst is yet to come.

The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford said: “It’s been a disastrous first few weeks of her premiership but if the rhetoric from the Tories is to be believed, the worst of this Truss government is yet to come.”

His comments came after a key ally of Ms Truss’, Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke, signalled ministers are looking to shrink the overall size of the state alongside falling tax cuts.

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Truss acknowledges ‘some disruption’

And Sir Keir Starmer said it was “unacceptable” voters nor MPs had had any say on the new economic measures announced.

“The economy is not a laboratory experiment for the maddest scientists of the Conservative Party,” the Labour leader wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.

“The pain about to be inflicted on the whole country is the result of a prime minister and a chancellor wedded to a disastrous ideology.”

The conference will open today with a tribute to the Queen but it is Mr Kwarteng’s speech on Monday and Ms Truss’ closing speech on Wednesday that will command the political attention.

The Great Debate promo Monday October 3

Labour surges to record leads in polls as Truss insists mini-budget did not cause economic turmoil | Politics News

Labour has surged to record leads in multiple polls following the economic turmoil after the government’s mini-budget.

A YouGov/Times poll placed Labour 33 points ahead of the Conservatives, believed to be the largest lead for Labour in any recorded poll since 1998.

And a Survation poll had Labour on a 21 point lead – also the largest Labour lead the pollsters have ever recorded. Some 49% would vote for Labour while 28% for Conservatives, the survey found.

A Deltapoll/Mirror poll put Labour 19 points ahead of the Tories, with 48% of voters from Tuesday to Thursday saying they would vote for Labour and 29% for the Conservatives.

Much of the YouGov poll’s Labour lead was buoyed by 17% of people who had previously voted for Boris Johnson saying they would now vote for Labour – double that of a week ago.

And 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 would now vote for Labour, up from 27% at the start of this week.

26% of Tory voters also told YouGov they now do not know who to vote for.

Reacting to the YouGov poll, a Tory MP told Sky News: “You’re bloody joking, that’s annihilation.”

Another said they were “shell-shocked”.

Sir Keir Starmer has enjoyed a bounce following the Labour conference this week, which was generally seen as positive for the opposition leader.

His popularity has boomed even more as the markets continue to react negatively to the chancellor’s £45bn package of tax cuts revealed less than a week ago.

Even since Tuesday, four days after the mini-budget, Labour has continued to gain in the polls.

Thursday’s YouGov poll gave Labour a nine-point boost from a poll it did from last Friday to Sunday, while the Tories went down seven points.

However, in a series of interviews on Thursday – their first since the pound reached a record low on Monday – Liz Truss and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng doubled down as they blamed global events for the economic turmoil.

The prime minister insisted the government took “decisive action” that will aid growth and said the government had to take “urgent action” to kick-start the economy and protect consumers from rising energy costs.

During a visit to an engine plant in Darlington, the chancellor said the plan is aimed at “protecting people right across the country” and was “absolutely essential” for growth.